[btilly]

You are not offering evidence against the hypothesis.

Divorce spikes around various life transitions occur because predictable events create predictable stresses that predictably are hard on marriages. Examples include the death of a child, children leaving the home, financial crisis, retirement and long-term illness.

Pairs who proved compatibility by settling down fast last longer because they are more likely to survive these stress points. However stress points are still stress points and "more likely to survive" still means that lots won't.

Personal disclaimer. I married at 20 to my second girlfriend. I was her first boyfriend. We did divorce..but only after 25 years. You can decide for yourself whether a 25 year marriage is evidence that we were more or less stable than an average couple.

[Retric]

Divorce after 25 years is statistically below average for a first marriage in the US. Waiting would have significantly reduced your odds of divorce. Overall, most relationships don’t involve marriage and many people never get married, so it’s really a question of what you consider below average.

I don’t think a relationship that ends is always worse than one that continues. Many stay together out of habit, fear, finances, having kids etc, continue long enough and someone is likely to die. Simply lasting a long time is thus a very poor measure of success. Arguably being happy, raising well adjusted kids, financial success, and or a host of other things could be considered a much better benchmark.

So I will turn it around, what’s the odds you would each have found a better partner or even become a better partner by looking longer?

[watwut]

> Waiting would have significantly reduced your odds of divorce.

You can not use statistic thay way. General stat for divorce does translate into individual one like this.

[btilly]

Well, I'm sure that I could have done better than to marry someone with manic depression.

I'm biased. But given her dating history since, I don't know that she would have done better than me.