[golem14]

Agree. I wonder what is the rationale for all this. Other than plain old xenophobia.

Will this reduce pandemic ? No, it will incentivize colleges to offer in-person classes promoting COVID.

Will this reduce students on non-immigration visas ? Not sure it does (students might find in-person classes somewhere). Some students might just say 'fuck it' and study elsewhere. Maybe that's good for them.

Will this reduce unemployment? Maybe. But I'm doubtful. Most F1 students are barred from working off campus other than internships, and I doubt on-campus work and internships make a dent in unemployment.

[cm2187]

Plain old xenophobia? How about double digit unemployment rate? We can debate the means. But I can understand why Trump would want to cut down on immigration.

Now a good question is whether there will be unemployment among highly educated people with STEM degrees, who were in hot demand only a few weeks ago, and if not this is counterproductive. But every economic indicator seems to point at a major recession (beyond a technical recession during the lockdown). I would assume everyone will be impacted.

[esalman]

You may not know this, but graduate research assistants make less than what many Americans get in unemployment benefits. You are basically getting cutting-edge research work done by non-immigrants for that money. Do you think it is more beneficial for your country to pay a US citizen for doing nothing?

I am a GRA and I work on translational research in neuroimaging and data science. With my career prospects dwindling, I'm considering leaving US if the president gets reelected.

[sukilot]

Unemployment payments are temporary, not 4 years.

[esalman]

Yes, once you get employed you keep making even more.

[umanwizard]

Students on F1 visas are not immigrants, and in general can’t stay after their studies are over (with a limited-time exception via OPT status), unless they get a different type of visa.

[cm2187]

All my friends who emigrated to the US did so from an F1 visa (followed by a work visa sometime during their first year of employment). Of course it is a source of immigration.

[golem14]

+1. I believe a lot of (if not most) people come to the US not only for the education system, but to have a good chance of getting the green card and eventually citizenship.

I don't think that's bad for any party - the US gets access to very smart and enterprising young people (and can grow the edu market), and those people get access to the US.

Making studying and converting F1=H1b->green card process harder is going to have significant drawbacks, such as

* shrinking edu market will itself negatively affect the economy. * Now that FAANG etc have seen that work-from-home can really work out, I expect ever more hiring outside of the US in the future. That doesn't mean that jobs will be opening up in the US. * Harder to find qualified people in the US. [Remaining US workers in STEM can anticipate ever higher wages?]

These drawbacks will take some time to materialize, so it's possible to use this argument (less immigration == more work) during campaigning and deal with the fallout later (or pawn it off to the democrats. Or silently walk back the rules after the election).

Maybe one good thing to come out of this change would be the need to press for domestic STEM education more and earlier.

[cm2187]

I think the shrinking edu market is going to exit universities that probably didn’t add much value in the first place. So it might not be a bad thing in the end.

And I agree that we need more STEM education though I have my doubts in the capacity of the population to “upgrade” intellectually. Lots of people aren’t STEM material whatever means you mobilise.

Which is why, long term, the immigration of smart and skilled STEM students is a good thing.

But I really see the next 2-3 years as really tough, probably worse than 2008. And I can see why the administration would try to remove any additional pressure on the job market in such exceptional times.

[belltaco]

>How about double digit unemployment rate?

How many jobs are going to be lost at universities because of this?

[throwgeorge]

what exactly do students on F and M visas have to do with employment? they can't work to begin with.