Next Facebook Killer

[posssiblyit]

What could it be? any ideas?

This is the technology industry which means that you can't stand around for a long period of time without expecting or preparing for another entry. There are other startups coming in the scene addressing this issue of "privacy" and "open source" etc... With time Google and Microsoft will follow as well as VCs looking for potential candidates... MySpace could have re-designed their interface and added relevant features to stay competitive rather than switching their focus which was their main down turn. Ex. Microsoft buys yahoo to compete with google... no success.. Microsoft creates bing (sort of like a copy of google) and takes a good share of the market.

Facebook "basically" gave users what myspace and friendster had + some more in a very nice and easy to use format (even though both companies had largely taken over the market based on our expectations at the time - p.s. expectations change). Is that what a startup can do in this area to potentially "viral" and gain AT THE LEAST 100,000 members? Ex. StudioVZ, Chinese facebook copy etc...

Expectations of a market take over can now be defined as 500 mill members and in 2004 and on myspace was considered at the top of its game etc... you guys probably see what im getting at. But 2004 and now is a huge difference with access to computers, technology and cell phones being extremely convenient so is 500 mill a REALLY BIG NUMBER or Can it get even BIGGER in the future?

[imx]

There won't be any "facebook killer", instead the entire social netowrking buzz will gradually cool off over time. Facebook will remain the center piece "hub" of social networking, while audience interest will shift towards niche sites and apps, and most of them will be heavily integrated with / rely upon fb's api...

[willheim]

Facebook will remain as long as people support it. In the short history of the net we have seen sites come and go with little more reason than they simply became passe. AOL had all the makings of a facebook (every ad on TV/poster had AOL Keyword:"...") but focused on their dial-up margins. MySpace had it but failed at modern design. Geocities, TheGlobe, etc, etc, had potential to do it before that. So many sites have come and gone in a social space. And now, where FB has picked up the slack they still can't replace the numerous forums out there where people really congregate to interact with "not friends".

Eventually, I believe, FB will be passe. And whatever out there is quenching people's social interaction thirst will thrive. Yes, it will be bigger because there will be even more people hooked up to the net.

[Wadsworth]

I imagine that it won't be an all inclusive social networking site- it will instead, be a collection of sites that focus on single features (work, education, social groups, hobbies and so on). People are going to just grow out of this everything model- especially those that have been using it since high school (even grade school). There is something to be said about staying in touch with people from your past, but realistically how much does one have in common with an acquaintance from 15 years ago? I would venture to say that even the most active facebook users reduce their usage within the first few months and this trend continues as one transitions out of being a student.

[posssiblyit]

you may be right but there are others who say that everything is moving towards a more universal location.

[luckyfish]

Let's assume facebook stays the basic social networking layer but most of the time people spend, and most of the data they give will be inside facebook apps. not so good for facebook.

Zynga/farmville is a great example of such process.

I'm not sure that one application will replace facebook, probably few/many games and virtual worlds.

[posssiblyit]

impressions are still in favor of facebook..

[mapster]

there would have to be an app that -with a single click- would migrate an account over to a new site. Certainly FB could block this. Otherwise ppl are too lazy for the most part.

[posssiblyit]

you mean just export facebook account to this new social network? facebook would eventually block it...

[jchonphoenix]

I don't think looking for the next facebook.

Doesn't seem like facebook is going to be "killed" anytime soon.

[JoshKalkbrenner]

The next 'FB' will come from India

[sown]

I think this is fair.

It's plausible that a FB sized company in terms of influence or some other metric could arise in India and yet not many or any people in the US would hear about them.

Not many people in the US out of the 310 million of us have heard of Tata motors yet that company has a market three times the size of the population of this country.

[ved]

Thanks for your trust on India...your prediction might come true...

[JoshKalkbrenner]

It's the market potential, rather than the country of origin, that I make and support my statement on. Though India is home to many intelligent and dedicated developers, I believe the next 'FB' killer will be developed in the States, but not for the States [market].

[posssiblyit]

Orkut is quite strong in India... but theres plenty of market still to capture there so I Wouldn't be surprised if a couple of networks tried to capture that market...

[profitbaron]

I think that, the "Facebook Killer" will be something entirely different to what Facebook is today. The reason is based on a few things but look at all these "Google Killers" - Mahalo, Cuil, Blekko, DuckDuckGo etc with the exception of Bing none are really seen as a threat to Google. Cuil has deadpooled, Mahalo has changed business model and we're only really seeing what Blekko can do which goes to prove the idea, that for something to beat Google/Facebook its going to have to be something new. Such as the evolution, of Facebook becoming a threat to Google so much so they are focusing more on social aspects with +1 etc.

However, going back to your question and looking at it with regards to "open source" issue you raised, its important to note that at Facebook they are very open to the idea of opensource having, released many things into the open source community themselves - http://developers.facebook.com/opensource/ and Facebook even provide a public mirror - http://mirror.facebook.net/ of many open source services. This shows that, an "open source" service won't kill Facebook - look at Dispora (the "open source" Facebook) that hasn't worked which goes to show that, if something is going to "kill Facebook" then it won't look like Facebook.

For instance, Facebook doesn't look like Google but as I highlighted earlier Google are noting Facebook is becoming someone considered a competitor - especially if they move into search - which is why they are focusing on +1 etc.

Additionally, there's actually an interesting article about the Facebook Killer not looking like Facebook posted by Mashable's Pete Cashmore on CNN here: http://articles.cnn.com/2010-11-26/tech/cashmore.facebook.ki... which is also worth a read.

[posssiblyit]

Thanks, article seems interesting but "news feed" was an innovation that came in after the steady success of facebook (profiles, friends etc..etc.. that went viral over a tightly knit social crowd and spread from there).. Incremental innovations are what I see can get a startup in the rankings.. I found duckduckgo is really cool but still wouldn't appeal to the general population but blekko seems interesting..

[HerraBRE]

I think it's silly to make claims about Diaspora having failed, when the project is still in its infancy. These things take time.

The Diaspora effect isn't just about Diaspora - it's about all the other projects like it and the fact that they are trying to standardize how these sites can communicate. If they succeed, then social networking becomes a bit like e-mail, and Facebook becomes a bit like AOL.

[posssiblyit]

Disapora picked up media attention to early in the game... That kind of coverage may not happen again or be entertained by people who were once engaged... Concept can remain but surfacing it to the public will be difficult.