[throwaway_12351]

Does anyone have a good reference to competition vs compliance in the airline industry? US has a very competitive airline industry, and hence the incentives for regulations seems to be quite high.

On one hand, since Pakistan has a small fleet (60 planes across 3 airlines per wikipedia), I would assume it's highly competitive and there isn't any room for error/bribing. It's also possible that it's very competitive so not much incentive to invest time in getting a license?

It's also quite odd that Pakistan has really stagnant airline industry while almost all other economies have growing airline transporation. It was 9.63Mn in 2016, and down to 6.88Mn in 2018. Per https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Pakistan/Airline_passengers....

[baybal2]

Heavily subsidised gulf carriers (many of which were founded by ex-PIA cadres...) have ate the lunch of the few Pakistani private carriers. PIA used to be nation's pride from its better days, so it's politically hard to rectify it when people with statist sentiment now run the establishment.

Just like Pakrail, and PSM, PIA will be kept afloat, and safe away from privatisation.

Khan's administration took down Sharif, and Punjabi old money people, now come Pathan old money people, and people with even stronger conviction that having a state job legitimately entitles them to run state companies like a family business.

[Answerawake]

Just out of curiosity. How has Kahn done in your opinion. I don't follow the news too much but I am curious. It just seems like with Pakistan it is impossible to get an objective unbiased opinion anywhere of how things are really going.

[baybal2]

> Just out of curiosity. How has Kahn done in your opinion.

Mixed feelings. He cleaned up the state... a bit. People rightfully raise his, and his officers' lacklustre execution skills. Just like two previous establishments, Khan too bogged down in networks of local elites, and old money people with whom he did horsetrading in order for PTI to come to power. At least, unlike the previous leaders, he recognises it as a problem.

He came to power on the promise of undoing the system of clan elites dominating the country, but that's kind of hard to do when your own lieutenants, and backers are made of the same elites...

Pakistan is effectively split in between three huge ethnocentric elites, Sindhi/Seraiki Bhutto dynasty, Punjabi Sharif, and Pathan Khan. Pathan elites were prominent with military, hence Khan's coming to power. And there is a strong statist culture, where state companies used to provide the most lucrative jobs in the country. And there is a culture where people believe that being made a boss is a fully legitimate entitlement to run a state company/ministry/corporate unit like a family business, and there is nothing wrong with that.

A huge generational struggle is happening with people who want to end it vs. ones who don't.

The a massive brain drain that Pakistan experienced after Zia's coup, and mass immigration of anybody of talent will take years to reverse, and undo the negative selection effect.

[throwaway_12351]

Thanks! Just out of curiosity, do the gulf carriers keep PIA in high regard and have a friendly relationship or they are continuously trying to bring it down?

The whole "we have grounded people with fake license" sounds like someone knew about it previously, and they are conspiring against PIA. I don't think PIA would be aware of fake licenses and keep them as well? or it took them just a few weeks to find out people with fake licenses?

[baybal2]

> Thanks! Just out of curiosity, do the gulf carriers keep PIA in high regard and have a friendly relationship or they are continuously trying to bring it down?

Pakistani airlines were not the only ones whom Gulf carriers have brought down. They dominate the entire region, and rightfully so (aside from heavy subsidies.) Their service is superb.

PIA used to be a much more higher-end airline, and it was on top of global ranks before the troubles started in the country. A lot of Pakistan's talent called it quit at that point, and immigrated en masse, aviation cadres included. A lot of them settled in the UAE, where they crossed paths with the gulf money, and set the foundation for many of Emirati airlines.

Naturally, conquering Pakistani market was very easy for them given their local knowledge.

> I don't think PIA would be aware of fake licenses and keep them as well?

They would. The phenomenon started with Gen. Zia (who died in an airplane crash, ironically.) The country has been ruled by three political dynasties that effectively normalised the state when state companies were given away to children, relatives, and friends to be ran like family businesses.

A double digit of all professionals in the country are fake degree holders, and that's not surprising in a country where now two generations of people were raised internalising the idea that earning money straight, and fair was made impossible as such, per-design.

[fmajid]

That's a highly rosy history. I flew PIA from Tokyo to Karachi with my parents in 1985. Our unanimous conclusion: never, ever again.

I don't have an axe to grind with them. My mother's uncle was head of maintenance for them in Karachi, and a good family friend the station chief in Paris. Sadly, like many other Pakistani institutions, it was overtaken by incompetence and corruption, long before the Gulf carriers burst into the scene (and ate European carriers' lunch, not just third-world ones like PIA or Air India).

[baybal2]

I think 1985 would be long after the troubles have started. PIA agreed to effectively create its own competitor, Emirates, in 1985 by leasing them their crafts, and pilots not because they did well at the time.

[throwaway_12351]

thank you!