[dna_polymerase]

Hardware will be a huge part, yes, but algorithmic advances would be even better. Utilizing existing commodity hardware to full extent is where the money is at. Specialized hardware will probably remain just that, specialized and mostly too expensive.

[modeless]

There will be algorithmic advances, but they will benefit larger models too. Larger models will still win. The value of having the best AI is so great that it will be worth nearly any level of investment in hardware to the large tech companies that can afford it.