[gnusty_gnurc]

This jibes well with michael levitt's research and pre-printed paper. What I can't help but think is the immense political cost of the possibility that this has all been a massive overreaction - no politician will admit they misjudged the epidemic and needlessly doomed businesses and livelihoods of so many people.

I suspect most people don't even want to entertain the possibility, but the truth will come out eventually.

[jrfinkel]

(Author here.) I completely agree on the cognitive dissonance of whether lockdown was the right move. I don’t even think it’s just politicians, but also people. Everyone has invested so much in it, that the idea that it actually caused net harm may be too much for people to bear. Norway’s health chief admitted it was a mistake, but is the only example of that I’ve seen so far.

I also agree that it jives with Levitt’s work, as well as Karl Friston, and I like they kind of all get to the same place via different techniques.

The most prescient, and overlooked researcher on this currently is Sunetra Gupta of Oxford. This interview with her is over a month old, and she talks about a lot of this stuff: https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta...

[gnusty_gnurc]

> that the idea that it actually caused net harm may be too much for people to bear

precisely what I was trying to say

> The most prescient, and overlooked researcher on this currently is Sunetra Gupta of Oxford.

loved that interview!

I've been following Levitt from early on, which led me down the same general thread of somewhat disparate online media as you have apparently. I'm aware of some of the research that comes up but never dug too deeply. That said - I'm not sure there's anyone I know that's aware of any of it.

It's a weird headspace; somewhat lonely and maddening to see society act in really draconian ways with such little reflection. It's like the narrative was decided very early on and they're just going with it.

I think I'm more unsettled by how hard it is to mention stuff like this - very strong reactions to even suggesting there's a possibility about lockdown being ineffective, etc. Clearly the cognitive dissonance re: sacrifice and cost is a part, but there's a certain moralism/virtue/hubris (I can't shake the feeling of similarity in the protesting) that's behind it too. It might be a stretch to tie it all together, but we're, for one reason or another, fundamentally lacking open dialogue with others grounded in trust, empathy and reason.