| I'm from an Italian-Spanish family from South America (grandparents emigrated to the New World during World War II), and I lived in Europe for 5 years (studying abroad). When people think of currency, they tend to focus on the supply side (monetary policy) and forget to look at the demand side (necessary liquidity). There is as much dollar-denominated debt outside the US as there is within. As counter-intuitive as it sounds, the crisis is creating more demand for US dollars, not less. This is why the Fed expanded the "dollar swap line" program. The "eurodollar" system is often overlooked, yet one of the most important drivers of the global economy. Compare the policy of the Federal Reserve with the ECB (Eurozone) and the PBOC (China). And you will see why not only will the US dollar not collapse, in the coming years it may get so strong it could lead to a new Plaza Accord. The Central Bank of Norway had to restart intervention in foreign exchange markets for the first time in decades. Norway, the #1 most developed nation in the world, experienced a dose of monetary reality on the 22nd of March (look up NOKUSD). The so-called "rising power" of China is as marketable as it is absurd. Every other quarter there is a story of the PBOC injecting liquidity and lowering the capitalization requirement for banks. Needless to say, the Yuan still pegs to the US dollar for a reason. Public opinion and mainstream media are divorced from financial reality, and we don't know if this is due to hysteria or sheer incompetence. The surprise comes with the realization that the noisy political infighting of the American political class is orthogonal to almost everything. The US may be a disaster, and simultaneously be the best in the world. Trump may be an idiot, and simultaneously be the smartest in DC. Moral posturing isn't a substitute for good banking. |