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by akg_67 2176 days ago
+1 Any trading strategy based only on price is fool’s errand. The information that impacts price need to be included in the trading strategy. A lot of short term price movement is news driven, thus unstructured text processing of news, social media, relevant documents will be a key component of such trading strategies.

I am not that familiar with forex market compared to equity market. But I expect forex to be impacted by changes in political and economic situational news of host countries of relevant currency pairs. All these need to be coded into forex trading strategies.

If trading based on just price was so simple , everybody would be doing it successfully.
3 comments
larrydag 2176 days ago
Price based arbitrage was very successful for Edward Thorpe http://www.edwardothorp.com/books/a-man-for-all-markets/
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smabie 2176 days ago
No successful strategy ever has been based on price. Price isn't stationary so you can't do anything with it. You need to be looking at the log returns. Price is completely irrelevant, at least for equities.
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akg_67 2176 days ago
Do you know how return is calculated?
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Jimmc414 2175 days ago
Sorry, but that is wrong. All I use is price and time. See Elliot Wave Theory. Most indicators are perfectly correlated with price meaning unless you are a HFT you can't trade fast enough to act on them.
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smabie 2175 days ago
Elliot wave theory is quackery. Price is not suitable for any statistical analysis.
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Jimmc414 2175 days ago
It has changed and it is just observations of competing waves of pessimism and optimism and the patterns they demonstrate. I'll put a model trained on TQQQ and SQQQ price and time data only. I will bet you 5k mine will beat yours using whatever inputs you choose over any reasonable time you specify.
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sitzkrieg 2176 days ago
trading forex swaps as an individual is a disservice. its not centralized at all, as a retail you get spreaded quotes from some banks that want to make markets and that is it really. many of the biggest fx brokers have been banned in the us over the years too for all sorts of awful things [1]. there are cross bank quoting and such but the whole thing is extremely unsuitable for retails, making it prime for low barrier to entry decimation of retails which is exactly what you'll see time and again.

if you really care to trade currency rates in a sane way, there are CME futures

1 http://www.forexscamalerts.com/fxcm-permanently-banned-usa-f...

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