[JoshTriplett]

> > What would it take to convince you that whatever problems you're envisioning, they are not worse than 150,000 people dying every day, or 100 people ever minute?

> You'd have to start by convincing me that death is unconditionally bad.

That's not a point I'd try to argue. I'd argue that on balance, a human life has positive value, a human death is horrifically bad, and that the net value of 150,000 people dying every day is at the very least negative, not positive. Is that a point you're disputing?

I want to establish a baseline here, because while there are plenty of counterarguments to be had, I don't want to spend time mentioning or pointing to counterarguments for positions you don't hold or points you don't wish to argue. Which of the following (if any) are accurate descriptions of a position you hold?

1) You're arguing that on balance, there are resource constraints that make life worse for everyone if there are more people in the world, that people living longer (let alone forever) is on balance worse for people in the world, worse than the harm of those people dying. I can think of plenty of counterarguments to this.

2) You're arguing that there are specific people who will do a great deal of harm to society, that that harm would be substantially greater if those specific people live forever, and that there's less harm caused by killing them (or "letting them die", which you might not see as equivalent, though I do). There are plenty of counterarguments for this position.

3) You're arguing that on balance, society needs some kind of regular "turnover" of who is in power, and that death helps serve this function, and that this function is important enough to justify continuing to let mass numbers of people die. I know plenty of counterarguments for this too.

4) You're making some other argument tantamount to a "tragedy of the commons", where the incremental value of an individual human life is positive but you're concerned about the limit as those numbers keep going up and other numbers don't.

5) You're arguing that for some reason other than the above, most or all people should die, and that this is on balance not a bad thing, or even that this is a net good. This would be a rather broad gulf of fundamental values to attempt to bridge; I can imagine some places to start but it'd require a lot more information about exactly what your values are that support this position.

(I'm also going to reiterate, as my own baseline, that every time you imagine a number of people dying and try to assign a net value involving that, you would need to imagine every one of the 100 deaths per minute, 150,000 per day, 57,000,000+ per year, every single one being as awful as someone you personally care about being killed. That's incredibly hard to do, and it's hard for anyone to process on that scale either; the most I've managed is to calibrate to "mind-bogglingly worse than any possible intuition I can fathom even taking into account everything I've said here".)

[lisper]

> on balance, a human life has positive value

Yes, I would agree. But that value derives from the process of living. The value of a human life is analogous to the value of a movie. That value only manifests itself while the movie is playing, not when it is sitting on the shelf. And dying is an essential part of that process, just like a movie coming to an end is an essential part of that process.

> a human death is horrifically bad

Only if it ends prematurely or painfully. Otherwise it's just part of life.

And though it would not be my primary argument, I would also agree with #1, 3, and 4, or at least variations on those themes.

[JoshTriplett]

> But that value derives from the process of living.

Ultimately how someone spends their boundless time is up to them, but in general I'd agree that the point of life is to live, not just to exist, yes. But in general, people working on longevity do it so that people can live more. And the purpose of going on existing forever is to be able to go on living forever. That value doesn't become less over time.

> That value only manifests itself while the movie is playing, not when it is sitting on the shelf.

Can you un-metaphor this to a point about humans?

> And dying is an essential part of that process

And there you've completely lost me. Right now it feels like you're speaking in metaphor, analogy, and cached responses. Humans are not movies, and life is neither film-like nor has a plot that needs to end; on the contrary, humans are a source of boundless novelty and creativity. Why do you believe it to be essential that life end? What, precisely, do you see as bad about not dying, and in particular, worse than the alternative of continuing to live?

I'm genuinely curious at this point, because thus far the only underlying arguments I've seen you mention anywhere in this thread seem to be roughly "we evolved to reproduce and then die, a longer lifespan doesn't serve reproductive fitness", as well as that we have a finite planet with finite resources and you expect immortality to lead to infinite growth. The simplest counterargument to the former is just "so what?"; there's no argument there for why we cannot direct our considerable concerted efforts towards surpassing that, nor for why we shouldn't. The counterargument to the latter I've made in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23645480 .

There's far, far too much science fiction and fantasy featuring "immortality angst", of people who live forever and think that's a bad thing. Far too much of that angst relies on metaphors and words designed to sound profound (e.g. "life is precious because it's fleeting"), and those aren't even arguments, nor do they hold up to a moment's thought.

> Only if it ends prematurely or painfully. Otherwise it's just part of life.

It's always premature as far as I'm concerned. I intend for it to one day stop being part of life. Why do you believe that to be bad?

[lisper]

> humans are a source of boundless novelty and creativity

No, they aren't. It only seems that way to you because you haven't lived very long yet, and what life you've lived has been lived at one of the most propitious times in the history of the universe. You've known nothing but peace and prosperity and discovery of new things, and so it's easy to imagine that this can go on forever. And maybe it can. But it won't.

Just as a purely practical matter, humans are not going to survive beyond the heat death of the universe. They are extremely unlikely to survive when the sun becomes a red giant. So even with arbitrarily advanced technology, the time available is finite. A few billion years may be better than a few dozen, but no matter what it's going to be finite. And a good thing too, because you really don't want to live forever. To paraphrase Douglas Adams, forever is a long time. A really really long time. You just won't believe what a vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly long time it is. I mean, you may think a few billion years is a long time, but that's just peanuts compared to forever. In an unbounded amount of time you can read every book that has ever been written and every book that could ever be written an arbitrary number of times. You can watch every movie, play every game, write every program, learn every fact that can be expressed in a text shorter than the current size of Wikipedia and you still won't have made a perceptible dent in an unbounded life. Long before you get to the non-existent end you will be bored out of your skull and you will yearn for oblivion.

But all of this is academic because, again, as a practical matter human civilization is unlikely to last this millennium, maybe not even this century. The human species will likely go on, but civilization is probably toast. Unless something really radical changes really soon, we're looking at a climate tipping point happening before the end of this century. Whether that actually ends up destroying civilization before the end of the century is open to debate, but once the permafrost releases its methane there's no coming back from that. We're looking at 5-10 degrees C of warming after that, and no way is this round of civilization going to survive that. If you really want to make a dent in the world, that is the problem you need to be looking at because it is going to dominate everything else in your lifetime, no matter how much you manage to extend it.

[JoshTriplett]

> It only seems that way to you because you haven't lived very long yet

Neither of us have. But nonetheless, humanity continues to get better, and I'm familiar with a great deal of research on the nature of novelty, creativity, and fun, in the face of not only endless life but increasing intelligence. It's one of many, many problems that have solutions.

(And as an aside, anyone who truly decides that life is not worth living can always decide they don't want more of it, but that would be short-sighted and pessimistic.)

> Just as a purely practical matter, humans are not going to survive beyond the heat death of the universe. They are extremely unlikely to survive when the sun becomes a red giant.

We have billions of years to solve both problems. People two hundred years ago could not envision the society of today. It seems the height of both pessimism and hubris to believe that you can accurately predict the limitations of humans billions of years from now. The latter problem we understand now.

And more generally, there are many people working on existential risks to humanity, though more would always be welcome.

> And a good thing too, because you really don't want to live forever.

Do not presume to tell me what I want by projecting your own desire to die someday.

> You can watch every movie, play every game, write every program

And more will be created, because again, humans are a source of boundless novelty and creativity. And new forms of collaborative entertainment and edification and fulfillment will arise, many that we cannot yet envision. New forms of envisioning will arise.

> as a practical matter human civilization is unlikely to last this millennium, maybe not even this century

By all means, please work on solving that problem, rather than spending energy telling other people not to solve other problems in parallel.

> If you really want to make a dent in the world, that is the problem you need to be looking at

A massive number of people are already looking at that problem. And without going into a massive tangent, that problem hardly needs more technical solutions even if I were a climate expert; that problem needs political experts, among other things.

[lisper]

> Neither of us have

I've lived longer than you have.

> We have billions of years to solve both problems

That's true, but we don't have billions of years to solve climate change. But no matter how much time you have, you cannot get around the fact that exponential growth is unsustainable even with arbitrarily advanced technology. Unless you can find a way to exceed the speed of light (and good luck with that) resources can only ever grow quadratically.

> It seems the height of both pessimism and hubris to believe that you can accurately predict the limitations of humans billions of years from now.

No, it is your unbounded optimism which is unjustified, unless you can figure out how to do an end-run around relativity.

> Do not presume to tell me what I want by projecting your own desire to die someday.

First of all, I don't want to die. Dying sucks. But living forever would suck more.

And I didn't intend "you don't want..." to be taken literally. What I meant was something more along the lines of: I know you think you want to live forever, but I claim that's because you have not fully thought through the consequences, and if you were able to live forever you would find that it's not as great as you think. But that just seemed a little too wordy.

> And more will be created

No, this is the thing you have not fully taken on board. Human creativity only seems unbounded because our lives are so short and so we're only able to sample a tiny fraction of what is possible. But with a truly unbounded life span that would no longer be true. You really could experience every possible sensory input an arbitrary number of times, and eventually you would get sick and tired of everything.

> please work on solving that problem, rather than spending energy telling other people not to solve other problems in parallel

Those are not mutually exclusive. Part of solving climate change is persuading as many people as possible to work on it. Furthermore, one of the principal drivers of climate change is complacency and boundless optimism, the blind faith that some other smart person will figure it out and everything will be OK. It won't.

> that problem needs political experts

That too. But it also needs you. And everyone else.

[tlb]

> resources can only ever grow quadratically.

Growth can be cubic if you're expanding outwards at a constant speed and assuming (on a large enough scale) an even distribution of matter in space.

[JoshTriplett]

> I've lived longer than you have.

Let's not play that game. Neither of our relative ages matter for the purposes of extrapolating to billion-year lifespans, nor do they render you particularly qualified for deciding whether such people will get "bored". Far more qualified people than either of us have done research on the topic, and I have at the very least read many research papers and articles by those who do.

> No, it is your unbounded optimism which is unjustified, unless you can figure out how to do an end-run around relativity.

The sun burning out is a problem we can already hypothesize ways to solve now, given technologies whose development has a scale of "centuries" or "millennia" rather than "billions of years". The most obvious solutions involve leaving the planet, and that doesn't even touch on the possibilities of stellar engineering. That's easily imaginable within the scope of today's science fiction, let alone the unforeseen technology of even thousands of years from now. I feel quite safe making the prediction that, conditional on humanity lasting the billions of years between now and then, the sun's expansion will not destroy civilization, humanity, or any non-trivial number of lives.

Much more critical existential threats, likely to be a problem on much shorter timescales, include nearby celestial events, collisions, or other things we don't have billions of years' to prepare for.

As for longer-term problem of continued existence in the universe, I wouldn't hazard a concrete prediction, but I'm sure we'll learn a great deal more about physics between now and then, not to mention likely existing in a form where thought and subjective perception of time (as well as the ability to solve problems) can occur far faster than "one second per second". In any case, I think it is safe to predict that people will not actually give up on that problem until actual effort is put forth attempting to solve it for a very long period of time.

Besides, my optimism has come up against cynicism and fatalism far worse than yours and survived unscathed, and it continues to serve me well. I don't find that fatalism is conducive to actual solutions. (And when it comes to actual predictions, I aim for accuracy rather than either overestimation or underestimation, but I find that hope tends to help as long as it accompanies actual action.)

> First of all, I don't want to die. Dying sucks. But living forever would suck more.

That's a testable hypothesis. If it turns out to be possible, why not try it and find out, before deciding in advance how you'll feel countless years in the future? Not like you couldn't change your mind later if you still feel the same way.

> You really could experience every possible sensory input an arbitrary number of times, and eventually you would get sick and tired of everything.

There are entire branches of research dedicated to exploring and solving this problem. That research looks at concepts like what we actually find interesting and fun (for one example, problems that are difficult enough to be a challenge but not so difficult that we can't make progress or learn something), the classes of things we can find fun at different intelligence levels, and ways to ensure that the number of interesting things to experience grows faster than the amount of time available to experience them in. In short, no, you will not get bored.

(And that's not even getting into very dangerous failure modes like "oh, what if I just modify myself to not get bored", which is incredibly problematic but still a more interesting hypothetical attempt at actually trying to solve the problem rather than giving up.)

> That too. But it also needs you. And everyone else.

I already have a problem to dedicate my life to. Many others do not, and they would be better people to target with your advocacy. I would suggest that you'd do much better focusing on "this is an important problem to work on" rather than "drop this specific cause and work on this one". Fortunately, humanity is capable of doing more than one thing at once, and in fact should do more than one thing at once. These goals do not conflict with each other, and a much smaller set of people is able to work on one than the other, which strongly suggests a benefit to specialization.