[claudeganon]

The economic downturns are cause by the pandemic, not the lockdowns, and the lockdowns are the result of poor response to the pandemic that resulted in uncontrolled community spread. People keep mixing up cause and effect in talking about this. Taiwan and South Korea didn’t have lockdowns.

Taleb has a good debate with Ioannidis about why his forecasting on the epidemic is wrong. I side with his view:

https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/covid-19-ioannidis-v...

Is your argument that at the moment there are no excess deaths? Because the CDC data you links says there have been a lot of excess deaths. Why do you think there won’t be a log more when we have uncontrolled spread in many regions in the US?