[akoster]

You make a point but what I think the author is alluding to the fact that the US and allies have countered Chinese military actions (building bases in international territory) with words. If that track record holds, we may also use words to counter a missile strike on a TSMC fab.

[myrandomcomment]

If China attacks Taiwan it would lead to a war. If the USA backs down they are done as a power, the dollar would crash and the US debt would become unsubstantiated. Given that the war would escalate and China has an advantage of being close, the effort the USA would have to put in would cause a great deal of casualties, which would piss off then public in a Japan Pearl Harbor way so we could never back down. The logical course of action given the difference in ICBMs would be for the the USA just to nuke China after they fire the first missile. That’s the real world math. It’s highly likely the USA could destroy China without a great deal of damage. The Russians would sit it out hoping to become stronger after. Not making a moral judgement, just a military & economic one.

Feel free to disagree. I expect a storm of downvotes. Oh well.

[sho]

Do you honestly think the USA would be willing to suffer even one city nuked for any reason at all, let alone to protect some small island in Asia most americans couldn't even find on a map? In my estimation there is absolutely no way they would; the question is laughable. China has over 50 ICBMs. The USA is not going to get into a nuclear exchange for Taiwan.

And it's pretty questionable whether the USA could even do much to stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. They could perhaps harass it a little, at great distance to avoid the otherwise inevitable loss of their carriers, but the success or failure of any invasion would largely depend on Taiwan's military and political/national will.

[myrandomcomment]

Is is possible the USA could wipe out the 50 ICBMs before they are launched. It would take around 15-20 minutes for an ICBM from the USA to reach China. A sub off the coast would take that down to less than 5 minutes. If the President gave the order to launch from the subs as soon as the first Chinese missiles hit Taiwan it would be seen as an acceptable risk. The real politic of this has nothing to do with Taiwan per se, but everything to do with the fact that everything is priced in dollars. Allowing China to invade Taiwan without doing anything places the dollar as the world currency in jeopardy. The ability of the USA to borrow money to fund its government and economy is key. Loosing that would pull everything down. So yes, I do believe the US would trade a city or 2 in order to ensure its place at the top of the world order.

[sho]

Lol, no it is not possible. That is not how any of this works. You see to think the location of China's nuclear arsenal is on Google Maps or something. It is not.

In addition to its estimated 10-15 road-mobile DF-31 ICBMs, China has 6 active submarines with 12 missiles each. Even assuming a 50% reliability rate that's 30 cities. The USA would be utterly devastated.

Russia might then decide to simply finish the job.

Your ideas are just so ridiculous I don't need to argue further.

[myrandomcomment]

15 mobile launchers which the US spends a ton of satellite time tracking anything that looks like one. There are 1152 warheads just on the current US SSBN. They would target anything that even looks like a launcher. Assuming half are on Atlantic patrol, that is still 576 warheads. 15 real targets and 561 guesses. The odds are pretty good.

As to the subs the latest China sub is the type 094 which cannot reach the continental US with their current load of JL-2 (7200km) in their current patrol zone. Also they are pretty noise and easily tracked. JL-3 (9000KM) are not in wide service.

The US has a further 10600 or so warheads on ICBM. China’s total count is around 400.

The logical game theory response is for the US to go full nuclear day 0. That is what every general and every theorist in the pentagon will advise the president. I am not saying it’s a good idea, but the logic is sound if you except the fact that the US would be unwilling to allow the dollars position to be challenged.

The leadership of China is pretty damn smart and they know this. I applauded them in playing the long game, something which the last few American governments have forgotten how to do. Our inability to think long term will bring us down, not China.

[sho]

There is no way, full stop, that the USA can track random trucks in China. Even if they could, of course they have nuke-hardened storage - we call them "mountains". And that's 15 we know about, who knows how many more there really are. My understanding is that the PLAN subs absolutely could strike the US. And it goes without saying that US forces in SK, Okinawa and Guam would be utterly obliterated.

But all of this is ridiculous. Yes of course the USA has more warheads. They could indeed cause catastrophic destruction in China. No-one said they couldn't. The point is that China can and would counter-strike, with devastating results. This is the whole point of nuclear deterrence. No-one believes they couldn't, except apparently you with your completely unrealistic fantasies about the USA's godlike superiority. The USA as you know it would be gone.

And you somehow believe the USA would trigger this frigging holocaust to protect its image, or the US Dollar? What Dollar? The Fed's a smoking crater. Just delusional.

[AtlasBarfed]

If China is overly militaristic, then Japan will arm itself.

China may hate Japan historically for the atrocities in WW2, but they also fear them for the same reasons.