[ksdale]

Tangential, but a while ago I got really into sports gambling - mostly golf. And a rather unique thing about golf is that there are over 100 players in the field, and only one can win (and obviously there are other things to bet on besides the winner) but it's supremely important to internalize the fact that you can make very good decisions and still lose most of the time. You can't tell how your strategy has played out until you've got enough trials under your belt.

In any situation where you're trying to make a prediction, the best you can do is to make a decision based on available information, and then try to update based on outcomes, but being wrong in retrospect is absolutely not equal to having made a bad choice. It's, frankly, shocking to me how often someone will witness one bad outcome and accuse the person involved of being an idiot and making the obviously wrong choice.