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by myth2018 2192 days ago
Thanks for sharing this. I think I'll experiment presenting the situation to a customer using such model as soon as I have a opportunity. Sounds good.
1 comments

This might be helpful:

https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/741989main_Analytic%20Method%20for%...

It’s a straightforward enough primer that it can be done in Excel, including simulating the data if necessary.

Even if this type of model is too simple for actual estimation, it’s a useful (and sobering) tool to help managers understand why their intuitive estimates can so often be incorrect.