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by ankit219 2199 days ago
One of those who doesnt like the use of advanced stats in football. I do watch a lot of football though. My reason is simple:

The advanced stats as they are called (xG, xA, xPA, offense actions, defense actions) all end up as a mere tool for disregarding the actual result and providing arguments for which was the better team. Like team A won the match 1-0 but team B were the better team since they had more <<insert favorable stat>>. The idea behind stats should be to contextualize the game I watched a bit more, and not replace the game watching.

Then there is also comparing the stats across games. In football(and every other game) there is a different difficulty level associated with each game (fatigue, condition, team condition, opposition condition, tactics, opposition tactics, teammates, chemistry, opposition mistakes, opposition players, adjustments, pressure, and even sheer luck on occasions), which makes the comparison redundant. An offensive team would always have more shots and more possession than a defensive minded park the bus kind of team. Like you said, right now no stat is good enough to give us an idea of how well a team played. Football is a game of spaces, and a lot of things depend on player movements (or lack of) and vision. I find those reports helpful which tells us where a certain team had the advantage and how they maximised it though.

1 comments

Do you think the game of football is more complex than, say, the global economy? I doubt it, yet we still use data and statistics to analyse the economy, so why not football or any other sport?
Its not an exact comparison. We use models to analyse the economy but not human behavior. Any sport is a lot about human intelligence, behavior, and skill. Easy to quantify the final output (like numbers that matter such as goals) and compare those. Right now, other than that, we dont have good enough models for any action in football. The context is very important, but that is completely ignored by statistics. Until we get where those things are given due consideration, there is no point quoting or debating over vanity metrics like xG, offensive actions etc. There is a very American tendency to reduct a game to just stats, but that a game is infinitely more complex. You may have just one offensive action in the game and yet still win the game if you are well drilled defensively, and can stop opposition counters.