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by mschuster91 2195 days ago
> If people were allowed to have private retirement accounts with that Social Security money, everyone would be able to retire comfortably.

The drawback of a capital-only pension system is that ever more and more "dumb money" gets locked into things like ETFs - and more and more shares of "safe" companies get owned by entities which have ... questionable interest in exercising their voting rights.

For example, take big oil or coal companies. Their time to live is limited, last but not least because the demand is going to dry up sooner or later. Normally, investors would shed off these shares or at least push the company to sustainable goals - think car companies here: the long term goal that's most beneficial to society is to shift to electric / hydrogen, while the short-term goal that's most beneficial to next quarter's benefit is to cut r&d and sell high-margin SUVs instead.

The other problem that locking huge amounts of money into ETFs presents is a bit more complex: as more and more marker volume is held by ETFs which have to track the base stock get into a precarious position. Assume a stock drops in value because of a large sell-off, bad news, a Presidential Tweet or whatever, the ETFs the funds have to follow... and sell off, creating a race to the bottom due to oversupply (and the other way around). That means that, as more and more percentage of wealth is gobbled up by "dumb money", the remaining traders gain undue influence since they can essentially force the hands of the dumb money.

And then there is the final drawback: a government backed pension scheme like the German one where current employees pay the pensions of current pensioners in exchange for the in-kind promise ("Rentenpunkte") will weather any economic crash as long as the government keeps existing. A capital-based system is in for a nasty surprise in a total collapse event. The 'rona was a warning sign in that case.