[monoideism]

Exactly. I read the article fairly carefully, but the logic seemed circular to me. For a novel project, the problem of how to divide it up into predictable units of work remains. It's always the black swan little subprojects that destroy an estimate, and this approach doesn't help with those unforeseen events. If I could avoid those that reliably, I'd be able to estimate projects with a high degree of accuracy, even without using this approach.

In my experience, only increased subject matter expertise and a solid team with lots of experience can minimize the black swan events, and even then not 100%. They still happen with disheartening frequency.

And as you say, it doesn't buy you much if you want to measure how much work your team does per day/week/month, either, for the reasons you describe.