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by busrf 2193 days ago
You can intuit how much “active time” it will take you, personally, to do something. How can you intuit how long a task is going to spend in a queue waiting to be worked on because your team doesn’t have capacity, or another team “down the chain” doesn’t have capacity?

We have queuing theory because people are bad at intuiting the latter, and I don’t even think we're anywhere close to good, as an industry, at intuiting the former.

1 comments

You can talk about BS (in the context of software) like queuing theory or you can actually write software. I suggest the Mythical man month.

Sometimes I think humans developed language only to be able to pretend doing something:

Best hunter of the tribe kills a mammoth. But he is not verbally talented. Now an army of bureaucrats appear and tell everyone that they were instrumental in slaying the prey by applying some BS methodology. The tribe is gaslighted, the bureaucrats gain importance, influence and economic wealth.

Queuing theory is a branch of mathematics. It is useful, in a software context, for things like predicting server capacity and predicting response times of programs. It is also regularly used to predict things like hospital wait times.

Here is a very good introduction, I hope you can learn something new from it (:

https://github.com/ndvanforeest/queueing_book/blob/master/qu...

there's no actual use of queuing theory in the article though, it's just mentioned as some sort of irrelevant justification. it's not even a monte carlo simulation, it's a bootstrap. you definitely don't need queuing theory to run a bootstrap