[mwilcox]

Came here to say this. If we can't forecast the economy at the scale of millions of people and trillions of data points you're not going to be able to forecast a company. We should focus on building organisations that are robust enough to withstand challenges that are thrown at them

[Enginerrrd]

We CAN forecast a lot of those things. The problem is that people either don't think in terms of cinfiy intervals at all, or they neglect the 2.5-5% on the tails.