[Tehchops]

I wonder if it's even useful anymore to consider mental models in the context of financial markets, even if it's just used as a metaphorical warning sign.

I read an assertion recently that of all the "markets" in human civilization/culture, the financial one is the only one where we have truly have brought maximum resource and human capital to bear. With that in mind, no one is ever surprised when the next fat tail undoes hundreds of millions in mere moments, even when the capital was managed by ostensibly "smart" individuals.

The map is certainly not the territory there, but for the average individual they're going to have a hard time understanding the map, the territory, the map legend, anecdotes about the map etc...

[jbay808]

> I read an assertion recently that of all the "markets" in human civilization/culture, the financial one is the only one where we have truly have brought maximum resource and human capital to bear.

Are you thinking of this book?

If I had to name the single epistemic feat at which modern human civilization is most adequate, the peak of all human power of estimation, I would unhesitatingly reply, “Short-term relative pricing of liquid financial assets, like the price of S&P 500 stocks relative to other S&P 500 stocks over the next three months.” This is something into which human civilization puts an actual effort.

https://equilibriabook.com/inadequacy-and-modesty/

[Tehchops]

Bingo. What did you think of the book?

[jbay808]

It's been a while since I read it, but I generally like the author's writing style and find it engaging, although I know for some people it feels long-winded. I remember when I read it I felt it had an insightful and balanced take on several societal problems, which while not entirely different from other perspectives I've seen, was at least a lot more thorough and didn't just stop at "because bankers are greedy" or "because the government is incompetent".

I think the part that really shook me, and made a lasting impact, was this:

But in the early days when Omegaven was just plain illegal to sell across state lines, some parents would drive for hours, every month, to buy Omegaven from the Boston Children’s Hospital to take back to their home state. I, for one, would call that an extraordinary effort. Those parents went far outside their routine, beyond what the System would demand of them, beyond what the world was set up to support them doing by default. Most people won’t make an effort that far outside their usual habits even if their own personal lives are at stake.

It made me think hard about what trying hard to really fix something looks like, and what options I fail to entertain. And since reading that I've become more willing to actually do what's necessary to solve problems, even at risk of inconveniencing myself or worse, looking weird. Sometimes I meet people who prioritize not looking weird over the lives of themselves and their loved ones (like in the early days of the pandemic, when non-Asian people were still too embarrassed to wear masks in public). And when I find myself thinking that way, I think back to this book and think, let's make an extraordinary effort today.

I think the book would be better without Simplicio though, who is a pretty annoying strawman character.

[segfaultbuserr]

> The map is certainly not the territory there, but for the average individual they're going to have a hard time understanding the map, [...], the map legend [...]

It's true in many fields of engineering and scientific research, including geography and map-making. Just see how complex Geographic Information Systems [0] (basically computerized maps) have became.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographic_information_system

[BurningFrog]

The financial markets are aware of the models of them, and use that knowledge to subvert their expectations.

The financial markets may be the biggest intelligent entity that ever existed.

The only way to second guess them is to figure out a tru theory, and NOT PUBLISH IT. I expect there are many such theories producing a lot of wealth to people who don't talk about it.

[SuoDuanDao]

Financial markets are also unusually tough because it's such a wicked problem. If there weren't so many smart people trying to predict them, they'd be easier to predict.