[9q9]

Regarding average: which average in the sense of: average over what time window? Any specific choice here needs to be justified as happening in the brain.

Regarding "we will find brain models with observable activity that follows the FEP?": abstractly you are saying that your prediction for theory T is that we will eventually confirm T. This does not exclude anything, I can state this for any theory T whatsoever. (For fun, try to instantiate T with outlandish theories, e.g. with "We will eventually find weapons of mass destruction in Irak", or with plausible theories that have failed so far, e.g. "We will eventuallly see supersymmetry". Does your prediction rule anything out?)

Regarding variational Bayes, that was not invented by the Free Energy millieu.