[whatok]

Cov-lite loans are at the largest percentage of issuance of all-time. 30-40% with a complete lack of meaningful covenants in a lot of cases is wishful thinking.

Additionally, what's new about this cycle is tech companies being a massive percentage of issuance. What's the recovery value of a tech company with little to no real assets? Additionally, what's the recovery value of an energy company when oil has dropped as much as it has? Both of those sectors make up a huge portion of outstanding and will move the needle meaningfully even if other sectors are fine.

I probably agree with your overall point about the Fed and and govt but you really cannot use historical assumptions for recovery rates this cycle.