[pfdietz]

Solar panels are much cheaper than when the film was made. It's this reduction in cost that's driving the energy disruption, not increase in efficiency (although that helps).

Smil's critique seems off base to me. Yes, replacements of energy infrastructure take a long time if the replacing technology is developing slowly. But the cost of PV crashed by a factor of 5 in a decade. This rapid change will lead to existing infrastructure being ripped out before its normal lifespan.

(The next cost crash appears to be in electrolyzers, which will be the final coffin nail for nuclear.)

[dntbnmpls]

> Solar panels are much cheaper than when the film was made. It's this reduction in cost that's driving the energy disruption, not increase in efficiency (although that helps).

Solar is a nonfactor in energy. It counts for absolutely nothing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption#/medi...

The only energy disruption we've had is natural gas in the last few decades.

To show you how insignificant solar is, it only makes up 15% of renewables. The largest renewable source is wind ( 3X more energy than solar ).

https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/4-charts-show-renewable...

[pfdietz]

> Solar is a nonfactor in energy. It counts for absolutely nothing.

You appear to be confusing the past with the future.

And, really, a reference from 2016? Four years is FOREVER in the energy business now. PV costs fell by a factor of 5 in the last decade, you know.

[dntbnmpls]

> And, really, a reference from 2016?

And what reference did you provide? Other than your supposed ability to predict the future?

> Four years is FOREVER in the energy business now.

It isn't. Also, considering solar subsidies have collapsed throughout the world, especially since 2016, it's far more likely solar has lost ground. Going from insignificant to worthless. But that's probably why you haven't posted any sources right? So you should be thanking me for using 2016 data because solar has taken a beating since 2016.

> PV costs fell by a factor of 5 in the last decade, you know.

5 times nothing is still nothing. You know.

Solar was a nonfactor in 2016. Solar is a nonfactor today. Solar will be a nonfactor in the future. Mindless zealotry won't change the facts on the ground.

[pfdietz]

> Also, considering solar subsidies have collapsed throughout the world, especially since 2016, it's far more likely solar has lost ground.

One need only look at the data to see you are mistaken.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_by_country

Global installed PV capacity has more than doubled since 2016, and now accounts for 3% of total electricity consumption.

> It isn't

It obviously is. PV costs fell by a factor of 5 in a decade; that's about a factor of 2 in four years. You would have us believe that dropping the cost of PV by a factor of ~2 would make no difference. But this is clearly not true. We are seeing record low PV bids from all over the world. The most recent eye opener was from Abu Dhabi, where are 22 km^2 project was bid to deliver unsubsidized energy at $0.0135/kWh. This is many times cheaper than the power from the new nuclear plants being constructed in the Gulf region, and is perhaps the cheapest source of electrical energy on the planet.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/06/08/1-35-cents-kwh-record-a...

> 5 times nothing is still nothing. You know.

You seem to be another person who doesn't understand how exponential growth works. Solar is 3% of world electric consumption now; we are just 5 doubling times away from dominance. That's 20 years at the current rate of doubling. With demonstrated experience curves that will drive the cost of PV energy below $0.01/kWh in much of the world.

Ultimately, to legitimately gaslight you, your cognitive failure is to assume that things can't change quickly, and that your prejudices from a few years ago remain valid, even as the facts that underpinned them have vanished.

[pfdietz]

> That's 20 years at the current rate of doubling.

Correction: more like 15 years.