[KajMagnus]

> I would be really curious to hear his opinion on why the supply chains should collapse before 2030

Think about seat belts. Do you ask the driver:

> "I'm really curious to hear why you think you'll crash the car?"

when s/he puts on the seat belt? S/he'd likely say "No I don't think that at all".

And not impossible that the Collapse OS author might have a similar reply. Still, the project can be well spent time, like, a seat belt in case of the unexpected.

Think about: 1) Likelihood-of-Global-Supply-Chain-Collapse x How-Bad. And 2) How-much-does-Collapse-OS-mitigate-the-bad-things. And compare that, with 3) time spent building C.OS.

[logicprog]

He said in the Why? article linked above somewhere that he really does believe, even if he has no evidence, that we'll be experience a collapse sometime around 2030. That's not really comprehensible to me, even though your description of a possible rationale, which makes more sense.

[KajMagnus]

Oh, thanks for explaining. Here's the Why article: https://collapseos.org/why.html (didn't see it before).

In it, he writes: "... two important stages of collapse ... the second one is when, in a particular community, the last modern computer dies ... decades between the two ... Collapse OS won't be actually useful before you and I are both long dead"

making me wonder if one scenario he has in mind, is the different biggest countries in the world stopping trading with each other, so it won't be possible to get more rare earth metals (needed for today's computers, right). And then, maybe downhill from there, the thereafter following 50 or 100 years? — But not _necessarily_ a nuclear winter or something that dramatic & sudden.

And ... He also writes:

> What made me turn to the "yup, we're fucked" camp was "Comment tout peut s'effondrer" [a book]

I think you'd find the answers in that book then? Seems the book got translated: "How Everything Can Collapse" [in our lifetime] by Pablo Servigne.

[xeromal]

I mean, I can rationally say I'll probably be in an accident by 2030 with no evidence either.