[xorfish]

Scientists and the WHO estimated the IFR to be around 1% in February. Most models that estimate fatalities use that number as well.

That estimate has hardly changed.

[thu2111]

1%?!

CDC current estimate is around 0.2% and that's certainly still too high, for various reasons.

[xorfish]

Seems highly unlikely, excess mortality is nearly 0.3% of NYC. You would need 150% of NYC to be infected to get to 0.2%.

Many seroprevalence studies with prevalence >5% also show that the IFR is in the region of 1%.

[thu2111]

https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-imp...

"The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%"

[xorfish]

What is the basis for this best estimate?

[thu2111]

It states that in the article.