[liquidise]

Sweden's approach is clearly one focused on long-term results. If Covid sees a resurgence in the fall or as nations return to relative normalcy, we can expect the infection and death counts to be multi-modal in most nations, while Sweden's might be a bell curve.

For this reason alone, we are unlikely to know the effectiveness of Sweden's herd immunity for months if not years.

[legulere]

It would take years with current infection rates in Sweden to get herd immunity. If the plan is to reduce pension costs it seems to work.

[sampo]

> If the plan is to reduce pension costs it seems to work.

We don't know. Covid19 leaves some people with long-term, perhaps permanent damage. You might lose working-age tax-paying people from workforce, having to pay them disability allowance, and this might offset part or all of your savings in pensions.

[natch]

Taking years is generally the case with long term strategies.

[thu2111]

You're assuming current understandings of herd immunity and epidemiology are correct, which by empirical observation they aren't.

The epidemic is already over in Sweden:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden#De...

(more up to date graph: https://lockdownsceptics.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/IMG_...)

Yet a much lower level of infected population than conventionally understood has been reached. The models that assume the virus will continue to grow until 60%-70% have been infected are therefore wrong, reality itself is proving that.

There are now a whole lot of theories being explored as to why this is.

[edit: someone complained about the original graph link not matching worldometers. It's worldometers that's wrong so I replaced it with a Wikipedia link, which sources its data direct from Swedish health authorities. I left the lockdownsceptics link because it's a bit fresher]

[legulere]

I don’t know where “lockdown sceptics” got their data from but for me the current numbers look like a constant infection rate and only slightly reduced death rate that is also not falling: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

[Ma8ee]

But Sweden isn't trying to stop the infection with herd immunity.

[raverbashing]

I'm not sure of how much of the "long-term results" was historical revisionism, but I can understand some of it.

Sweden (or any other country to be honest) is nowhere near herd immunity, which kicks in at 60% (though some studies seem to have pointed to a lower number around 45%/47% something like that, anyway), Stockholm I think is around 10%, maybe 15%

And even when you reach 60%, there's still an infection inertia

I think it's fine for Sweden to have tried their approach, at these times, there are no real right or wrong answers, and Sweden's population probably is a little more sensible than most other countries.

[rumanator]

> Sweden's approach is clearly one focused on long-term results. If Covid sees a resurgence in the fall or as nations return to relative normalcy, we can expect the infection and death counts to be multi-modal in most nations, while Sweden's might be a bell curve.

Other than geometric tidiness I see no point in your comment.

In fact, it ignores the denial of service impact that an epidemic has on a national health service, and plays down how it advocates for a population culling.

Perhaps it's time to relearn the basic principles and merits of "flattening the curve", not to mention the benefits of gaining some time until a vaccine is developed.

[oxymoron]

Sweden’s hospitals hasn’t been besieged in the way seen in Italy, though, so I’m not sure that is true either. https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/corona-i-intensivvarden/

[glangdale]

There were a few articles that went by that indicated that they were being pretty cold-blooded in terms of triaging older people away from ICUs and ventilators. This isn't totally unreasonable, but it is weird from a "try to save everyone" perspective and does raise some awkward questions about their rather premature victory lap - "our ICUs aren't overloaded therefore we're OK".

[oxymoron]

The picture here is unclear. Public news interviewed several dozen doctors across hospitals in Stockholm. Some of them had the impression that they were preemptively turning patients away from intensive care units, but a substantial fraction of doctors also said that these are patients that wouldn’t have been put there under normal circumstances either. I think the truth is somewhere inbetween, but it’s clear that there hasn’t been the deluge of severe cases observed out of southern Europe.

[legopelle]

Ventilators are extremely intensive treatment.i It's forced breathing. If you're old and frail, it will kill you.