[avancemos]

Lockdowns are effective as tourniquets, but indefinite or long term use was never logical. There should have been more forward-thinking and pragmatic options pushed earlier. We will now see the natural repercussions of lockdown-centered policies.

[staycoolboy]

I think you may have misunderstood the point of lockdowns.

Lockdowns are/were intended to prevent jamming hospitals with COVID patients which would lead to non-COVID emergencies being put at risk.

The idea is to lockdown an area not to STOP, but to SLOW the trickle of new patients into hospitals at a rate they can be serviced: e.g., balancing the pipeline. In anticipation of the huge surges seen in the North East US, many hospitals built-out their capacity but didn't need it. Thankfully, and hopefully they will not.

As for "natural repercussions," the different phased-reopening plans that governors are drawing up all share the same thing: let's try opening a little, and if the cases shoot up again, lock down if hospitals are at risk of overflowing. We just don't have a national policy, it is patchworks of different state alliances.

It was the best idea at the time, and we all know the only other proposed solution was to NOT lock down and let those who are susceptible pay the price. Some people on the news vocally approved of that idea, most people did not according to surveys.

[somewhereoutth]

In Europe we are using lockdowns to get infections sufficiently low to do test, trace, and isolate - with eradication as the ultimate objective.

[michaelbuckbee]

This. Look at what New Zeland [1] has been able to do (or any Asian country that had plans in place post-SARS).

The US lockdown should have been used to buy us time to put procedures in place to stop further spread.

1 - https://bing.com/covid/local/newzealand

[dehrmann]

New Zealand is interesting because it's an island (2+, really), mostly rural, relatively isolated from the world, and caught it early. At some point they're going to open up, and someone with a 16-day incubation period will slip by and spread it. Or someone from a container ship.

The first US fatality was reported on Feb 29. There are reports that it started spreading in the US in late December. It took two months to notice it, 3.5 to panic. That said, people are looking for it now, so that helps.

[dehrmann]

It won't be irradiated without a vaccine or an absurd amount of testing. Too many people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms. Between that and a potentially long incubation period, it'll keep lurking around.

[fulafel]

That's fine, as the measures can be tightened again if a new wave starts to rear its head. We can see this much earlier now with all the testing so the dampening measures will be much shorter and cheaper and more localized. Until the vaccine arrives.

[staycoolboy]

> with eradication as the ultimate objective

I don't think anyone is claiming to totally eradicate it, or did I miss something? Because as long as people travel, it will still exist, e.g., we still have SARS and MERS and ZIKA, just very low numbers.

I thought the mindset was minimize it until we have a vaccine. I could be wrong.

[tomjakubowski]

No cases of SARS have been reported since 2004. It's probable that the SARS-CoV-1 virus was eradicated. That one might have been easier to control because it progressed much faster (and more commonly) to death than the novel coronavirus.

[staycoolboy]

What about MERS and Zika?

[cycrutchfield]

Nobody was ever advocating for indefinite or long-term lockdown policies. That's a strawman.

[avancemos]

Also: “ Durham leaving stay-at-home order in place indefinitely” https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nc/triangle-sandhills/news/202....

NJ stay at home order continued indefinitely | FOX 5 New York https://www.fox5ny.com/news/nj-stay-at-home-order-continued-.... And many many more...

[avancemos]

Which universe do you live in?

“Los Angeles County, which has recorded the highest number of coronavirus cases and deaths in California, has extended stay-at-home orders indefinitely.”

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/LA-to-extend-sta...

[joshstrange]

Exactly. It was time to get our feet under us, get PPE, get testing capacity up, get contract tracing in place etc. Kentucky, my state, has started opening up but is watching the numbers closely. No one wants to stay locked down.

It's going to be very interesting going forward. The American public (myself included more times than I would care to admit) is really good about moving on and having a short-term memory on things (Lots of these things happened back in 1918 with masks, social distancing, lockdowns, people hating the lockdowns, etc). I worry what happens when you couple that urgency to move on with something that, from all indications, cannot be swept under the rug.

[dajohnson89]

we could be sweeping something else under the rug: knock-on effects of the shutdown. people are somehow just starting to realize that there's worse impacts of shutting down the economy than lower share prices. people go hungry. people riot. cities burn. innocents get killed throughout the whole process. we're just getting started if the economy doesnt turn around quick.

[CPLX]

I would characterize basically all the the lockdowns as indefinite.

[bagacrap]

I guess it depends on how you define long term. I do have friends who think the lockdown should last in its current form (ie extended holiday with extra $600/week for the unemployed) until there's a vaccine.

Flattening the curve was the refrain but we seem to have forgotten that.