[bhupy]

That is only true in markets where there is an artificial supply scarcity. In markets with proper zoning reform, rents and housing prices will NOT increase over the long run.

But you're right that there exists markets (like SF) where this is simply not the case. What happens there? Take your thought one step further: if everyone received $x per month, and rent and housing prices increased by $x, then in that worst case scenario, the TAM doesn't actually change, I.e. if I was able to afford a house today, I would be able to afford a house tomorrow.

If I was unable to afford rent today, I would not be able to afford rent tomorrow however I would now have cash to be able to afford to move to a more affordable market. This seems like a strict win to me.