The problem has always been the pension obligations, specifically the medical costs. The math cannot be disputed. The reason why it really is different this time is because the Boomers will reach end of life, whether they like it or not, and medical costs rise exponentially in the last few years.
States and localities who were in decent shape until now will be able to weather this storm by raising taxes (even more) on the younger generations. In California, there isn't anymore left to squeeze due to Prop 13.
I mean California had a $27bn deficit 10 years back, but ended up with a $15bn rainy day fund. Even back then, I heard the exact doom and gloom. I will wait and see how this plays out.