[briefcomment]

When I hear your first point, I consider the possibility that these are not retaliatory murders, but rather ways to keep something secret. If there was an agenda behind these riots organized at a higher level than these leaders, similar to what is being suggested by some during these current protests, and those higher level organizers wanted to keep the agenda or those who set it hidden, it could explain why lower level leaders are being picked off.

Edit: For those downvoting, is there a problem with considering this possibility? I think it's incredibly unlikely, but ignoring black swans can one day come back to bite you. Ideally, everyone should be aware of the theories out there, however ludicrous, on the off chance that they are correct and require critical and swift action.

[therealcamino]

Pure speculation can sound rational and thorough, but most often it leads towards the ideas that seem most dramatic and exciting, and that conform to your own preconceptions and prejudices.

[briefcomment]

I think that's right, but I don't think that speculation doesn't have its uses. The truth is probably somewhere between the speculative extremes, and asking questions about the extremes causes people to look into things, which hopefully eventually lead to the truth and a resolution, both of which are probably nowhere near the extremes.

[therealcamino]

Well, you asked why you were being downvoted. Stuff that you just make up can be corrosive the the public dialogue.

[luckylion]

> When I hear your first point, I consider the possibility that these are not retaliatory murders, but rather ways to keep something secret.

That contains as much conspiracy as "somebody is hunting down the protestors".

There are simpler possible explanations, I believe, e.g. people who join (or organize) riots are usually not the stable boring kind that live long, predictable lives full of planning and quiet afternoons. Drugs, crime, violence and mental health issues are probably more prevalent in that group than in the general population.

[briefcomment]

There are definitely much simpler explanations, and they are true 99.9% of the time. I think it's worth considering the complex explanations for the exceedingly rare times they happen to be true, especially if the complex explanations claim the stakes are high.

[tehjoker]

This is pure speculation devoid of knowing anything about the particular people involved. Social justice organizers are often offbeat individuals, but they are usually sincere principled people that like most of us are not interested in dying. There's not a lot to personally gain from organizing, but there is a lot of baseless aspersions that get cast at you so thanks for contributing.

[sukilot]

Here's the thing about "black swans". If you ignore "white swans" in your hunt for black swans, you're going to miss a lot more swans overall.

[briefcomment]

Ok, so don't ignore either. You can consider multiple theories at once.