[riffraff]

We develop flu vaccines every year, and we do have knowledge of other coronavirus.

I tend to agree that there is some potential for fuckups, but 12-18 months seem reasonable to have most (if not all) of the vaccines as reliable.

[redisman]

One thing that's funny is everyone keeps saying 12-18 months. But it's already been 3 months so shouldn't that estimate at the very least be (12 to 18 minus 3) if the confidence was going up.

[riffraff]

At least in my intention the "12-18 months" are related to when research started not the time I made the comment.

For example, the Oxford University team said it may be ready by next fall[0] some weeks ago, and they seem on track for now (i.e. human trials already started and being expanded). Moderna also started human trials and had preliminary positive results.

Other entities said they aim for this winter.

Considering early 2020 as the start of the research I would say that fits the 12-18 months figure.

[0] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-11/coronavir...