[throwphoton]

> I'll be in the pub by the end of the year.

Does this mean that you think the risk of serious morbidity or mortality is overestimated, or because you think at some point the reduction in social interaction is worse than the pandemic itself?

[joaomacp]

both

[tinus_hn]

Not to mention that everyone can see that as in many countries measures are being loosened with little effect.

[dan-robertson]

This is sort of inevitable though: if the disease were not serious and measures were an overreaction, you would see little change as they were lifted. If the disease were serious, measures were effective and they were lifted sufficiently late, you would also hope to not see much difference after they were lifted. The only cases one would expect to see a large increase in cases would be if the measures were ineffective (but then you’d also have seen an increase while the measures were in place) or if the measures were lifted too early.

Personally I’m mostly indifferent to whether or not the current restrictions are an overreaction, though I’m in the fortunate position of not being particularly severely affected by them. I would rather an overreaction than an underreaction.

[tinus_hn]

Why would you see a large increase in cases when ineffective measures are lifted? Ineffective measures have no effect.

[dan-robertson]

Well cases would continue to increase after as before. That case was included for the sake of completion