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by Someone 2221 days ago
Also, 0.05% sounds like a tiny number, but is larger than mortality probability of all other causes in the USA for people in the 1-21 age bracket, still is half of it at age 33 and about a quarter of it at age 45 (https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html), and that’s even with those statistics including people with comorbidities.

Looking at it another way, if the entire population were healthy, that’s 160.000 deaths. That’s four times the number of yearly traffic deaths, double the number of overdose deaths (both already high for comparable countries)

Those 160.000 might not return every year, but if this behaves as a typical virus, it could mutate enough to return every few years.

2 comments

Well the mortality difference by age is stunning:

According to CDC data, 81% of deaths from COVID-19 in the United States are people over 65 years old, most with preexisting conditions. If you add in 55-64-year-olds that number jumps to 93%.

For those below age 55, preexisting conditions play a significant role, but the death rate is currently around 0.0022%, or one death per 45,000 people in this age range.

Below 25 years old the fatality rate of COVID-19 is 0.00008%, or roughly one in 1.25 million.

Another way to look at it: ~700,000 people under 65 die in the US each year.
Or ~240,000K each month in total (across all demographics)

(~8000/day)