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by DiffEq 2225 days ago
The model said if we don't lock things down China-style millions will die. But we see now from Sweden it was not true. See top graph: https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-c...

Also Neil's other predictions have been completely wrong on the Swine Flu and Bird flu. Why this "expert in his field" is still listened to is a mystery to me.
3 comments
Rebelgecko 2225 days ago
If you're talking about that first graph on the page, I think that it is not very helpful. Comparing total number of deaths can be misleading, especially for small countries like Sweden. If my state had a Coronavirus death rate as high as Sweden's 15,000 more people would be dead. Still not "millions", but it wouldn't be an ideal outcome.
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thebean11 2225 days ago
Weren't his projections for deaths assuming we did a lockdown also much higher than the actual numbers?
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belltaco 2225 days ago
Some other comment here said it was the other way around,they predicted 20k deaths in the UK with a lockdown and the death toll is 36,000.
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belltaco 2225 days ago
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/sweden-highest-deat...
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takeda 2225 days ago
Sweden is pitched as as some kind of example of handling the pandemic correctly, when their numbers[1] don't look good at all. From their numbers[2] 44% of people diagnosed ends up dead, implying they are way under tested or they have ridiculously deadly strain (I think it is the former). Because of that the most reliable indicator from them is number of deaths.

Now compare number of deaths with countries that reacted quickly, for example: South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Norway and others.

[1] https://covidgraph.com/

[2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

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