[addicted]

More importantly this will also encourage non Chinese nations to assist in any move away from US power over the semiconductor industry.

India has already started taking steps. It’s likely the Europeans will as well now.

The US government is taking these actions with blinders on. They only seem capable of modeling effects 6 months into the future and only the direct impacts on China (and barely even that, considering how poorly their entire tariff wars have gone, with the US basically having got nothing so far). The reality is that there is an entire planet’s worth of other countries also watching the US lashing out. Especially American allies who have been directly attacked by the US government over the past couple of years, that are now convinced they need to start steadily moving away from US influence.

[kyboren]

If "Europe" stops sitting around with its dick in its hand and actually subsidizes/incentivizes development of a globally-competitive domestic semiconductor industry, I will be shocked. India, too, is hopelessly reliant on the US semiconductor technology ecosystem.

What is increasingly clear is that both the US and China see domestic leading-edge semiconductor production capacity as a core national security interest. It is not so easy to assist China's project; serious moves to help China establish independence in semiconductors will cause cascading changes in the relationship with the US. While they may be disquieted by recent US behavior, western European leaders can see perfectly well that China is not a viable strategic partner and that the risks and costs of being kicked out of the US security and trade umbrella (this stupid trade war with the EU is peanuts to the kind of coercive tariffs and sanctions looming in such a case) outweigh the benefits of helping China make better semiconductors.