China has finite resources to throw at this problem and their track record so far is less than stellar. There is a lot of concern that pursuing this now is wasting resources better put to use elsewhere. But now the nationalists will be able to point to this and say 'see, we were right all along, now we need to make up for lost time' and then they'll demand even more resources.
Which is interesting because it probably (not 100% sure about that) wasn't a resource issue to begin with (see below), the amount of money thrown at this so far has resulted in precious little in terms of concrete returns.
China is still stuck at 28 nm and a rough 6% or so of global capacity, technologically that's well over a decade behind TSMC, Samsung and GF, they also almost exclusively sell into their own market.
Whether this will be the push they needed to start moving remains to be seen but it will certainly add to the total weight of evidence that independence from US controlled manufacturing is a strategic goal.
It may also cause them to become more serious about Taiwan being a 'part of China' which may result in the longer term in the US shooting it's own foot. That would be a major game changer, TSMC is 50% of the global chip production.
From what I know about this the major roadblock from a tech perspective is the gear required to set up the fabs, specifically EUVL equipment, which is not the kind of equipment you make from scratch without having seen the intermediate stages. To what extent more money will be able to accelerate this is the big question.
This December '19 CGTN (I know, I know) article[0] says 16%
“China currently produces over 16 percent of silicon chips. To compete for semiconductor leadership and make its economic relationship with emerging economies easier, China plans to produce 70 percent of all semiconductors it uses by 2025.”
And this March 2020 Daexu Consulting article[1] pegs China's semiconductor consumption at ~60% (!) of the world's total, but notes “However, domestic Chinese manufacturers are still only capable of meeting approximately 30 percent of their own demand.” ~60%÷10×3 = ~18% which jibes with that 16% back there.
Which is interesting because it probably (not 100% sure about that) wasn't a resource issue to begin with (see below), the amount of money thrown at this so far has resulted in precious little in terms of concrete returns.
China is still stuck at 28 nm and a rough 6% or so of global capacity, technologically that's well over a decade behind TSMC, Samsung and GF, they also almost exclusively sell into their own market.
Whether this will be the push they needed to start moving remains to be seen but it will certainly add to the total weight of evidence that independence from US controlled manufacturing is a strategic goal.
It may also cause them to become more serious about Taiwan being a 'part of China' which may result in the longer term in the US shooting it's own foot. That would be a major game changer, TSMC is 50% of the global chip production.
From what I know about this the major roadblock from a tech perspective is the gear required to set up the fabs, specifically EUVL equipment, which is not the kind of equipment you make from scratch without having seen the intermediate stages. To what extent more money will be able to accelerate this is the big question.