[trixie_]

I know it's in Taiwan, and if this escalates, the supply chain will get cut.

When it comes to 'invasion', there's no chance of defending Taiwan unfortunately. No one has the stomach for that. It's easily one step away from a nuclear war. You think coronavirus is bad...

[someperson]

I read up a bit into this a few year ago and China invading Taiwan is actually far harder than you'd think. There are only a few easily fortified areas that can handle an amphibious assault, and either way PLA has limited amphibious assault capability and limited modern warfighting experience (PLA is actually suprisingly corrupt and ineffective).

Of course, during a war military planners expect massive cyber attacks against Taiwan, and CCP sympathizers within Taiwan committing sabotage. Military planners also expect NATO forces to use missile barrages against targets on the mainland of China (which would clearly cause escalation).

[effie]

NATO forces? Are you sure?

[dannyw]

The threat of nuclear war goes both ways: the impact of nuclear on discouraging the defence of Taiwan is equally applicable on discouraging the invasion of Taiwan.

[trixie_]

No one is having a nuclear war over Taiwan. It's important, but not that important.

If China invaded Taiwan, the US would not defend it. Super powers don't go to war. They have wars through proxy countries. If super powers did go to war, it would be nuclear war, and it would be bad.

[someperson]

For what it's worth, the invasion of Taiwan is considered by military planners to be an important flash point for World War 3. It would be bloody, and very likely nuclear, and pull in nearby nations like Japan, and will likely end with hundreds of millions (possibly billions) dead.

[trixie_]

You need to put 2 and 2 together. The fact that we know it's a 'flash point for World War 3' is exactly why it would not be defended ;)

[jessaustin]

Not by USA or other allies. However, the Taiwan military could make it painful for the mainlanders. Or, the right bribes to the right officers might grease the skids.

However, this is thinking like American leadership: too short-term. What happens the day after China controls Taiwan? Do all Taiwanese meekly submit to their bullshit? Or do they become an extreme version of Hong Kong? It's mostly Han in Taiwan, so the depravities seen in Xinjiang and Tibet couldn't be instituted there without jeopardizing the legitimacy of the entire state. As long as Chinese leadership is fairly secure in their positions, they won't invade Taiwan.

[trixie_]

It's not that complicated. It's a country of 23 million people vs a country with 1,393 million people.