[aashiq]

Being right on average isn't that useful for intellectuals. Much harder to be right even once about something important that others are very wrong about. It's easy to be right on average by always following the prevailing consensus.

People like Leonardo and Newton are valuable thinkers because they once in a while produce a really good idea, and it doesn't really matter if they know themselves which ideas are good or bad. This is a really bad trait for a leader or a trader though.