| >".. Uh... because the market crashed ~50 days ago for reasons that still hold?..." I think this depends what reasons you would pick to make the above statement, at least for US market. My subjective reasons to be more positives are (in no particular order): - The covid-19 induced death toll that was project in March is no longer assumed valid and is halfed, at least. - Unfortunately, many deaths appear to be due to mismanagement of nursing homes. Therefore, focusing on how to fix that problem (and hold incompetent policy makers accountable in the process) -- is a manageable way forward. Point in statically sampling there, (and may be I am too optimistic), is that these horrific outcomes for our elderly in these homes, may not apply to overall larger population. - The analyst assumed unemployment rate by May was 16%, but numbers came out to be below that. - The increased availability of testing, ventilators, personal protection equipment, and the reduction of bottlenecks in CDC, FDA happened faster than I expected. - Not surprisingly, overall traffic in US is reduced by 38%.
Which has is temporary positives (eg reduction of traffic fatalities). To be honest, not sure why I am including this in the list, but feels a temporary positive. My driving is reduced, but feels safer. May be something good will come out in this regard, long term. The traffic death/injury toll in big cities is just terrifying. Overall, though, I think the market is overpriced at this point. There is a shift in earning potential from 'travel and commute' related industries to online/telecommute. But that shift will take years (may be 3-5 years), so that folks reposition their skills/workforce participation to accommodate the new realities. However, the market thinks it 'has already happened'. So I agree that the market is overpriced, but not because 'same reasons from 50 days ago, still hold'. P.S. I lost a 93 year old relative in NY, they said person was not covid-19 positive, but no relatives were allowed in the hospital during treatment, and they used ventilator. [1] https://www.newsmax.com/health/health-news/car-crash-acciden... |