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by TA0x0 2227 days ago
>Yeah, that's exactly why that's not enough data to put together policy.

Except it is, and I just proved it above.

>You might as well measure bumps on people's heads to predict whether they want anti-violence funding

Bumps on people's heads have nothing to do with violence. This is a non sequitur.

>you'll have about as much luck as you will chasing it after skin color

That makes no sense. The fact that the group is more violent is not open to interpretation, or "chasing", as I proved above.

>manifestations in African American culture that breeds violence" (what does that even mean?).

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/manifestation

1 comments

> Bumps on people's heads have nothing to do with violence. This is a non sequitur.

I submit to you it's exactly as irrelevant as skin color. I submit to you if you take the population that you have described, change only the category from "African American" to another category and nothing else, and kept the same population of people with no other parameters changed, you would not see a change in the violence rate.

Believing that measurable correlation implies causation is one of the major failings that I see often encouraged in the computer science space. It underpins some of the greatest failings of machine learning.

You made claims about population and then claims about interventions that suggest that the population membership is causal. What if the causal issue is poverty? Poverty in the United States is so deeply correlated with being a member of a racial category that it is extremely hard to disambiguate effects that show up in race from effects that show up in income and asset levels. This is what I mean when I say lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Because if the cause is poverty and not "African American culture," then violence interventions for African Americans are like "get your energy level up" interventions for people who are starving. You'll waste good money treating the wrong problem. You'll also miss people that also have the same problem but don't get any intervention because they don't fit the poorly-defined template.