[burgreblast]

17 days ago we heard that 3,330 inmates tested positive, 96% without symptoms.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22980932

There was much speculation, but many people agreed that in 2 weeks we would have super interesting data.

It's been 17 days. We have an update from ohio.gov that tested individuals climbed to 7536, 4439 are positive (59%), total 49 deaths (.01)

Not an epidemiologist. Does this data fit the Diamond Princess model? Or more broadly, which model fits this data best?

Is there other data to show how many became symptomatic? How do we interpret this update, more than 2 weeks after initial reports?

[sirsar]

> total 49 deaths (.01)

If you're going to report other ratios as percentages, could you please be consistent? I initially erroneously read this as 0.01% deaths, which would be an absolutely enormous update, but 1% isn't surprising at all.

[ecpottinger]

Diamond Princess had a far higher percentage of older (over 70) people. I also would like to know if the HVAC system is as centralize in a prison as it is on a cruise ship.

[vkou]

HVAC is not the problem.

The problem is that prisoners routinely share common spaces. It doesn't matter how the air circulates, when they all cook, eat, work, shower, and exercise in the exact same communal rooms.

Combine that with insufficient sanitation, and it's a miracle that only half of them got sick.

[limaoscarjuliet]

HVAC might be a problem, there was a CDC article demonstrating how A/C was attributed to specific cases in China https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article

[vkou]

I agree that HVAC can cause spread. My point is that prison life does not allow for social distancing, and that the HVAC is irrelevant when everyone is living in essentially the same space.

[RandallBrown]

Cruise ships are pretty similar in that people are eating and recreating in the same areas.

[cbarrick]

The number of "inmates currently Positive for COVID-19" is 1,112, not 4,439.

I think you're counting tests, not people. Those numbers double count inmates who receive multiple tests, and it's likely that those who have tested positive will receive frequent retests.

FYI there's just under 40k total inmates.

[vondur]

I'd like to know the ages of the deceased, and if they had any other serious health issues. If the majority of the deceased are indeed old or in poor health, perhaps isolating those from the general prison population would be a prudent precautionary measure to implement.

[Gibbon1]

I keep seeing reports that after an outbreak has played out about 25% of infected never show symptoms and 60% have something between a mild cold and a bad case of influenza. The remaining 15% get really sick and ~1% die.

If you just look at the stats initially you run into the problem that a lot of infected are preasymptomatic are in the early course of infection. So retrospective stats are very important.

[brohoolio]

I’ve been thinking about the asymptotic cases in situations like this and the Roosevelt. I think if folks are monitored very closely for symptoms we might learn more about how it impacts people and what percentage of cases stay asymptotic.

[stx]

Keep in mind this is deaths so far. This number will change as some may take more time to die. So maybe the radio could be around 1% to 2%.

[csomar]

What's the average number of natural/usual death, though. You have to subtract that. It might be small/none or substantial.

[npunt]

There have been other state prisons that have released prisoners that were severe cases, so as to lower their death numbers. Look for that.

[kiba]

Don't forget we can't really acquire complete mortality data until the coronavirus run their courses in infected individual.