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by kragen
2235 days ago
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Now I realize this is dumb because I wasn't excluding the cases where Monty opens the door you picked. Excluding those cases takes us back to 50:50! So I guess it really does matter that Monty knows in advance where the goat is... How embarrassing that it took me two minutes to get the wrong answer and two hours to realize it — just long enough that I couldn't delete my confident assertions above :) This probably forms some kind of evidence about the quality of evidence you can get out of computer experiments without careful thinking :) |
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