[lbeltrame]

> The model is validated by real experience. Italy, New York both blew up.

Do you know where the first clusters in New York where?

Because in Northern Italy, and especially around Bergamo, hospitals and then nursing care homes turned into infection centers, and with the population there so skewed with the most vulnerable (along with imperfect knowledge on the pathology) it was easy for the virus to kill them.

In fact most of the initial clusters were in hospitals, and negligence turned Alzano Lombardo in a nice spreading place.

Would a model tuned on what we know now, taking into account different infection routes and places, work the same way? I don't know, but it is a question worth asking even if in the end the model proves to be absolutely correct.