Article complains about "reliance on Asia" but neglects to mention a giant elephant of a problem.
PACKAGING
I had to shout it! Sorry, HN guidelines.
Intel makes chips in USA fabs, then sends them abroad, mostly to Asia, to be packaged. Same for anyone else making chips in the USA.
I'm retired now but I highly doubt this has changed recently. It's been going on since the 1970s if not earlier. There are probably a few chips made for the US military that are packaged domestically. But over 99% are sent overseas.
Edit: To take it further, I bet that nowadays over 90% of everything related to electronics manufacturing has moved overseas. It used to be that you could fabricate PCBs domestically. You could have them stuffed with chips and soldered domestically. But now very little volume capability exists for that here. It's all "offshore", because MBAs decided that would be cheaper.
I kinda prefer well-balanced mutual dependency. This current wave of sinophobia is seriously worrying. Even in the darkest days of the Cold War, the Soviet Republic and NATO countries had significant trade relations, providing not just economic benefits but a stabilising mechanism identical to MAD in principle, but with far less actual MADness in a worst case.
China's ascent is going to happen. And contrary to this relentless US campaign to escalate, I cannot even come up with what exactly the US considers China's agression? Is all this talk of everything up to and including war seriously proportional to the thread that is... China being chosen to build some 5G infrastructure?
The British saw their Empire crumble after investing hundreds of thousands of lives and evenly distributing an entire Island's worth of forest in hull-shaped carcasses at the bottom of the world's seas. For that, they were left with nothing but a decent long drink and three cricket teams to lose against. Luckily, they have something not entirely unlike a deep-seated sense for civility and took it with some humour and only minor collective psychosis.
Is the end of the American Empire going to be a Republican Id in a total meltdown of nationalistic rage set off by this seemingly unavoidable narcissistic injury that China's ascend represents?
The prospect of America with diminished economic and cultural power, completely losing the optimism, openness, and sense of responsibility that carried it through the 20th "American" century, and retaining only the brute power of its oversized military as the only remaining source of agency is, frankly, terrifying.
That sounds like denial. The Asian ascent has already happened. Most of the stuff we used to make in the west is made there now: clothes, cars, steel, computer boards, plastics, hand tools, solar panels, batteries - pretty much all manufactured household goods that aren't food are made overseas now.
They have been churning out Engineers and PhD's for decades now. There was a time when we had far more than them, which is why they best they could do is cheap replica's of stuff we made. But now solar panels, WeChat payment systems, 5G equipment - these are all designed in China. They don't depend on us for technological innovation any more, or at least no more than we depend on them.
I don't know what Trump thinks "bring back chip manufacturing" involves - maybe he just believes you just follow some simple recipe and build a few foot ball sized manufacturing sheds. You don't build a technological powerhouse from one man or one company making a manufacturing decision. In reality most people here will know what it will does require. You have to build an education system that churns out highly educated people that then compete like crazy to build better and better manufacturing plants. Pretty much like the US does with software now - which goes some way to explaining why leads the world on that front.
Is all this talk of everything up to and including war seriously proportional to the thread that is... China being chosen to build some 5G infrastructure?
Difficult not to disregard the whole post as trolling, or even CCP information warfare, given this incredibly reductionist, simplistic comment.
The CCP's China ascend is no good news, other than for the CCP themselves, foreign agents embedded in Western democracies, and, for a short period of time, useful idiots.
In any case, such ascend has been greatly exaggerated, for internal chinese nationalistic consumption. Which is funny given your post. We've been hearing all this time how great the chinese century was going to be, yet IP theft is as rampant as ever, as if China couldn't actually lead to the point others stole from them. In terms of human rights, they're far behind even the newest and poorest western style democracies. They manipulate their dual currency system, and WTO must have run of space tracking all cases of them.
China hasn't even attained world leader status yet, and the meltdown is already happening to them. No amount of fancy orwellian tech can replace checks and balances and the Rule of Law. Every one of these crises more chinese citizens realize how oppressive the CCP boot on their temples is. Not the hypocrites living the Western life with dad's CCP money, sure.
And you're mislead if you think it's not a bipartisan issue in the US. Problem is that current and last Dem heads, from Clinton to Biden, including Obama, are in the CCP's pockets, so the impression is that only the GOP cares. Wait till the campaign heats up.
Absolutely wrong. The way China treats its people IS the root of the issue. With contempt and despotism. And because the CCP gets away doing that to their citizens, they think they can apply the same MO worldwide.
Information was hid at critical moments (Dec-Jan), hindering earlier response. Same as they did with SARS.
Xi asked Tedros, and the WHO by extension, to downplay and delay the emergency declaration, as reported by Der Spiegel from german intelligence reports.
Then they switched to report virus was coming from the US, while making some of the doctors reporting it came from Wuhan disappear. A play not only to avoid international backlash, but also to damage the US.
Australians, and other nations, have stated they'll investigate the origins and failures by China to disclose critical info, and the CCP response is to threaten them, via their english media mouthpieces.
The failures of governments worlwide don't make it less of a truth: China is at fault, to a great extent; they're unreliable, and have double down on their bullyish ways.
They started something, and now cry foul when there's a hint of being held accountable (which, let's face it, will be pretty mild). With no signs of remorse, because the ultra-nationalistic, aggressive plan the CCP has for SE Asia, and the rest of the world, doesn't allow for it.
Respectfully, there are a great many things wrong with the opinions in this post. I'll try to address them all with as few words as possible.
Chip self reliance is a good thing from a general geo-political standpoint, regardless of China.
China's aggression manifests in many covert operations, mainly information warfare.
The ruling CCP is diametrically opposed to most Western political and social values and itself feels very threatened by democracy and personal liberty. As such it is working very hard to destabilize the West and expand it's hard and soft power to export its authoritarian model around the world.
The end of the American "empire" is hardly guaranteed to happen any time soon, and while some weak willed and naive pseudo-intellectuals may be willing or even eager to roll over and let it die, many others with clear eyes recognize the benefits of your culture and country having power.
With power comes wealth. With power comes pride. With power comes influence. And with enough power comes global stability, which is what the US currently provides. Why would anyone in their right mind willingly give up such power? No, we will do everything we can to maintain it because it absolutely has real value that benefits all Americans.
Fundamental values, lives, wealth and influence are all at stake here. Those who do not recognize or do not care are fools. Let us hope they never get a hold of power.
>The ruling CCP is diametrically opposed to most Western political and social values and itself feels very threatened by democracy and personal liberty.
I'd like some folks from China to respond to my comment, to make sure I'm not talking out of my ass, but in discussions with my friends who are from Taiwan or from Guangzhou the Chinese seem perfectly fine with rejecting "Western political and social values" as long as it means stable and consistent security and economic growth. And frankly I don't blame them. There is no physical law that says western democracies == happiness.
But there is physical law (Newton's First Law) that implies without sufficient checks and balances systems ultimately become dominated by a single force.
Regardless, I and many other Americans like our system, so why should we allow to it be threatened by a power hostile to it.
>"What pathetic nonsense. They feel threatened by western aggression. Stop with the propaganda bullshit. They aren't threatend by "democracy" and "personal liberty". They are threatened by people hiding behind "democracy" and "personal liberty" to attack and destabilize them."
The CCP is indeed existentially threatened by freedom and liberty because their absolute rule is predicted on its antithesis. Open your eyes, friend.
> The CCP is indeed existentially threatened by freedom and liberty because their absolute rule is predicted on its antithesis.
The easiest way to spot a propagandist is the use of "CCP", so maybe you should steer clear of that? That's why the "CCP" doesn't allow the chinese to do anything right? Chinese can't travel overseas? Attend universities overseas? Can't work overseas? If "democracy" and "personal liberty" were such a threat why are there so many chinese in american universities?
> Open your eyes, friend.
Not your friend, pal. Why are you so concerned about the "CCP", buddy? Man, all of a sudden every propagandist seems to be so concerned with the survival of the "CCP".
Based on the article, it looks like only TSMC and Samsung can make 10nm chips as a service for other companies, and despite also being able to make 10nm chips Intel hasn't opened their fabs to contract work. Anyone know why this is? In the article it looks like Intel's spokesperson said they were willing to start offering their 10nm process as a service with fabs in the US, but I'm wondering why Intel didn't offer a foundry service earlier.
They did, see the Intel Custom Foundry history. The scheme failed when 10nm itself failed, making Intel partners be in a bad situation and regretting having chosen ICF in the first place.
Switching to manufacturing their own chips or using their own chips in Macs? The later has been a rumor for many years now and could happen, although they've likely used it to leverage Intel into better pricing. Manufacturing their own chips requires billions and billions of dollars and years of work building a fabrication plant and would not be something they'd be able to do under the radar.
It clears the cookies of the current page, takes the URL and uses Google to redirect you back to that URL, causing the page to assume that you clicked on a search result and are a first time visitor.
Bringing back manufacturing to the US will be extremely hard.
1) US citizens want top dollar for their labor and the lowest price for the product. 2 opposing forces.
2) The US has lost the experienced labor force that's needed
3) Regulations make it very expensive to start and maintain a factory.
4) The median age in the US is over 38 yrs old. Way past the education and career-building ages.
5) The US has started to limit immigration so importing the talent will not happen.
6) Capitalism rules in the US. And Capitalism says build it at the lowest price possible. Which rules out the US.
7) As the US population ages, more of the country's resources will be focused on health care and the care of the elderly and less on creating a manufacturing workforce.
8) Robotics is not always the cheapest form of manufacturing. Building it outside US will still have its advantages.
It's not impossible but it will take a few generations and a consistent US policy to do it.
That's not necessarily correct. True the US is a top manufacturer but a lot of key personnel are imported from other countries since they can't be found in the US.
If you look at the data, you'll notice that the dominating H1-B visa category is some variation on the IT workers. You'll also notice that many of the largest companies are Indian offshoring companies. So the number of visas there aren't reflective so much of a skills shortage in the US as a desire to hire foreign people for cheaper.
It seems so unsustainable to avoid training your own people and instead exporting these valuable skills to people in other countries which are not guaranteed to be friendly with us forever.
True, but that's been the argument against outsourcing manufacturing for 40+ years. Yet, it is still being done.
I think the best the US can do, right now, is to import from countries where it has some clout and can better control manufacturing. It's crazy to think that a big chunk of your products are being manufactured in China, a country that is competing against you.
>True, but that's been the argument against outsourcing manufacturing for 40+ years. Yet, it is still being done.
And it's generally made the world a better place. Even current conflicts don't even remotely compare to the Cold War. Some historical perspective may be needed but the world is better off if it engages in trade and specialisation. Nobody gains from the US retreating into a new era of isolation.
The entire world now has single points of failure because of this kind of specialization. Sure, it makes certain classes lots of money but it forces others into poverty and when bad things happen suddenly your supply for critical goods is cut off. To say nothing of the geopolitical consequences here, where letting so much of high tech manufacturing accrue in one country presents tremendous risk if anything goes sideways.
I assure you California is not losing against France in winemaking. The China shock was a one-time event that enriched billions of poor people who will be the world's consumers.
> 3) Regulations make it very expensive to start and maintain a factory.
If we're talking about semiconductor fabrication, I'd be surprised if the regulatory costs were more than a few million dollars... for a factory that will cost a few billion dollars.
> 4) The median age in the US is over 38 yrs old. Way past the education and career-building ages.
I'm 39 and generally dissatisfied with the work I'm qualified to do, and I might need to work another 30 years at the rate we're going (fml). I'd jump on a government grant for training in an industry with promised growth at this point.
The way I would put it is, chip fab processes use toxic and carcinogenic chemicals and waste that must be monitored, because historically they just let it leak or dumped it and left Superfund sites in their wake. Probably not as bad as mining but it tends to happen in more populated areas …
Intel makes chips in USA fabs, then sends them abroad, mostly to Asia, to be packaged. Same for anyone else making chips in the USA.
I'm retired now but I highly doubt this has changed recently. It's been going on since the 1970s if not earlier. There are probably a few chips made for the US military that are packaged domestically. But over 99% are sent overseas.
Edit: To take it further, I bet that nowadays over 90% of everything related to electronics manufacturing has moved overseas. It used to be that you could fabricate PCBs domestically. You could have them stuffed with chips and soldered domestically. But now very little volume capability exists for that here. It's all "offshore", because MBAs decided that would be cheaper.