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by ekidd
2238 days ago
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> Everyone prepare or get help to prepare and then actually have a lock down for 2-3 weeks and beat this virus. I don't think it's quite that easy. Wuhan shut down on January 25th, and they were still seeing 500 new cases a day by the end of February. This was despite a very strict lockdown, and a serious effort to find and isolate all the mild cases until they got better. Something like 80% of transmission was within households. Nobody was going out to party. Once this thing gets started, it's a beast to stop, taking something like 5 to 8 weeks bring a major urban cluster mostly under control. Our state has been lucky so far. We have about 1 new case per 100,000 people per day, and less than 2% of our tests are coming back positive. So we're preparing to move ahead with contact tracing and a staged reopening. |
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You say that 2% of the 100.000 tests come back positive.
Who can monitor 2000 people around the clock and track every single person they have any contact with? Honestly, where do such capacities come from? Or are people just told to stay at home and it goes unchecked, whether they actually do?
I imagine that to be very difficult to contact trace perfectly. Each infected person could infect many others, if not properly isolated. 2000 is still a lot to trace. If we were talking about 100 to 400 maybe or so, then I could imagine that being done.