| >How much money do you think the recession will destroy? Take that amount, and add a few percentage points of the total money supply to it. I think we'd have to print more than we could assume is safe. We're in an unprecedented situation right now. This isn't a normal depression. We shouldn't stumble into a battlefield and expect the old skirmish tactics to save us. We're acting unbelievably foolhardy and cavalier about the serious threat this poses to the poor. People on hacker news, the media, and in the CDC have no real fear of being evicted or going without food, so why would they seriously consider it? If you're a doctor or an epidemiologist, your work is essential so your main threat is the virus. You're optimizing national policy for one variable (disease spread and deaths) rather than multiple variables (disease spread and deaths, starvation, suicides due to job loss, increased homelessness, and general welfare of the country). >If you want more businesses to re-open, we should be working on better mitigation for the virus. The more testing, the more contact tracing, the more PPE, the better we comply with social distancing requirements, the better we can prevent spread in workplaces, the more non-essential businesses can re-open. I wholeheartedly agree and think that we all need to realize that we have a great responsibility to do our part to protect our loved ones from this disease. Funding testing and contact tracing is a life or death decision. >Could it be because the same political factions that are pushing for re-opening aren't interested in paying for it? I can't know for certain since I'm not in those political spheres. I can predict that the wealthy want their businesses to continue operating while they will personally self-isolate until they get a vaccine (social distancing for me, not for thee). Regardless of how our national policies change, I expect that the poor will get no significant financial support, as always. I predict that if we do print money, it will just go to businesses. About 80% of the financial assistance distributed so far has not gone to individuals. It has mostly bailed out businesses like hotels and airliners (because we desperately need hotels and airliners for the next two years!). That's the main reason why I don't buy the notion that the government will bail out individuals. It never has. It's a carrot on a stick. Anyways, I appreciate the insight on QE to offset deflation. Do you know of any interesting books on that topic I could check out? |
Anything from Steve Keen, he has a good endogenous theory of money. He had interesting models back during the financial crisis which showed that austerity was deepening debt deflation, QE to banks was somewhat OK, and QE to consumers (helicopter money) turned out to be the best solution.