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by cycomanic 2233 days ago
The other poster already pointed out that there is a difference between CFR and IFR (and initially CFR was reported because we did not have good estimates of CFR) The IFR for the flu is 0.1% in the bad years, and we have estimates of the IFR which are more in line with 0.9 to 1.5% (based on the antibody tests in NYC for example). That's 10 times higher, I don't know about you, but an order of magnitude is pretty significant in my book.
2 comments
SomeoneFromCA 2233 days ago
Not only that, even common sense observations confirm at least 3 times higher fatality rate compared to the worst flu: Every years approx. 45000 people die from flu in US. Within 1.5 months since the surge number of deaths reached 80000. According to various estimates number of deaths in US will reach 150 thousands. So already, with all the precautions it is 3 times deadlier. Without precautions we'd have 2-3 times higher rate.
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zajio1am 2233 days ago
> The other poster already pointed out that there is a difference between CFR and IFR

I know the difference between CFR and IFR. But i doubt journalists who wrote about covid-19 fatality knew that, such details are too technical for mainstream media. The idea conveyed by media was simply 'most people would get it as there is no immunity, and there is ~5% fatality rate'.

In that time we already have order of magnitude lower IFR estimates from WHO (e.g. from covid-19 situation report 30).

> we have estimates of the IFR which are more in line with 0.9 to 1.5% (based on the antibody tests in NYC for example).

In different areas it seems to be different. NYC was hit particularly bad, so it is not a good idea to generalize data from that. In Heinsberg (Germany) study, the IFR is estimated to be 0.37, although Heinsberg was also hit hard.

> The IFR for the flu is 0.1% in the bad year ... That's 10 times higher, I don't know about you, but an order of magnitude is pretty significant in my book.

I did not compare covid-19 to flu. It is true that covid-19 is order of magnitue worse than seasonal flu. My point was that it is order of magnitude better than media image of covid-19.

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