[Gibbon1]

What if Ontario was like new York State? Then Ontario with a pop of 14M vs 19.5M would have lost around 15,000 people not 1600 as current.

There is also this assumption that people will haplessly get infected as if they were livestock. Which they are not. The will stop going up, stop spending money, avoiding work if they can. That's baked in and not something the government imposes. Except to impose order on the process. An orderly early lockdown is better than a late chaotic panicked one.