[pnako]

Framing is important.

In many places the annual flu is more deadly. And all the articles about running out of space at morgues, etc. are common in winter in Europe.

We've had SARS and MERS before (MERS is way more deadly, yet we didn't enter a global panic). There is something specific about this panic, and it's not the virus; it's a variant of something we've seen before.

That the media played fear mongering is a given, that's what they always do; I suspect the new factor is social media, which has probably amplified that factor even more.

[javagram]

> We've had SARS and MERS before (MERS is way more deadly, yet we didn't enter a global panic). There is something specific about this panic, and it's not the virus; it's a variant of something we've seen before.

Can I suggest some basic reasoning as to why? Do you know which countries MERS spread to and how many people died as a result of MERS since it was first identified?

MERS was first identified in 2012. In 8 years, it has killed about 866 people worldwide.

SARS was first identified in 2002. In 2 years, it has killed 774 people and then disappeared.

SARS-Cov-2, the novel coronavirus, first appeared only 6 months ago in China. Since then, it has killed 100,000s.

How can you suggest that there isn’t more cause for concern over SARS-Cov-2, considering deaths are already at over 100x the other two viruses you mention in far less time, and that this death count comes despite an incredible, unprecedented international campaign to slow the virus?

[pnako]

Granted, this one is tougher, but not that much tougher than a bad strain of influenza.

Again, I'm not saying we shouldn't be doing anything. The catastrophe movie, Hollywood-like global mass hysteria was totally over the top and unwarranted, though.

We have ways to deal with epidemics that don't involve completely changing the rules, talking about "being at war" and so on.

[thefounder]

>>Granted, this one is tougher, but not that much tougher than a bad strain of influenza.

Covid is more contagious and more deadly than what we had so far when both factors are considered. In Italy hospitals were pretty much overwhelmed this year due covid with the number of people dying and the sheer number of infections. Did that happen last year or the year before due influenta/flue season as well?

[rumanator]

> Granted, this one is tougher, but not that much tougher than a bad strain of influenza.

This is simply outright wrong.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu...

Please stop spreading misinformation.

[pnako]

Get lost, seriously.

We all have the same voice here, and I'm "spreading" whatever the heck I want. It's not "misinformation" just because you happen to have a different appreciation of the facts. I don't have to answer to the nerd police, here or elsewhere.

[rumanator]

> We all have the same voice here

We have the same access to a website, sure, but you don't have the right to freely outright lie, specially when confronted with the facts.

Again, don't spread misinformation.

[pnako]

Stop spreading misinformation.

[cycomanic]

> Framing is important.

> In many places the annual flu is more deadly. And all the articles about running out of space at morgues, etc. are common in winter in Europe.

This is false and you are spreading misinformation. The estimated IFR you can calculate from e.g. the antibody test done in NYC is between 0.8 and 1.5% that's 10times higher than the flu. Moreover, the percentage of patients requiring intensive care is comparatively even higher (it really is not about the death rate primarily). Also please show some evidence for you assertion that morgues running out of space in Europe is common.

> We've had SARS and MERS before (MERS is way more deadly, yet we didn't enter a global panic). There is something specific about this panic, and it's not the virus; it's a variant of something we've seen before.

The reason why MERS and SARS did not cause this response is because they spread much slower. There are lots of diseases which are more deadly than covid19, the difference is how they spread. For example a disease that spreads through blood transfusions could have 99% fatility rate but would never be as dangerous to public health as covid 19 is.

> That the media played fear mongering is a given, that's what they always do; I suspect the new factor is social media, which has probably amplified that factor even more.

Actually the new thing is "experts" popping up all over social media talking about how everything is just overblown and we should not trust the real experts. This stories are pushed very clearly from political corners with a very specific agenda, it's all about discrediting science, evidence based decision making and our institutions (it all started with cigarettes then global warming and now covid19) . That's the irony all the conspiracy followers don't realise that they are part of the biggest misinformation campaign orchestrated by groups with very strong economic interests (you might even call them elites)

[SomeoneFromCA]

Rabies, for example are nearly 100% deadly, yet not that contagious.

[pnako]

I said that it is more deadly in many places, and you're talking about a single place (NYC). Let me remind you that it's not actually the centre of the world.

And I think you're reading a bit too much into my post. I don't think I'm a conspiracy theorist or whatever (and may I suggest you take your condescending tone and shove it deep down where the Coronavirus won't reach it?)

Now, I'm actually following the advice of scientists. I'm not more an "expert" than you are an "expert", of course, that is correct. I'm French, and our foremost (actual) expert on the issue, Professor Didier Raoult, whose advice I'm listening to, has been saying that it's just another respiratory disease epidemic, like we have regularly. He's not advising to do nothing; quite the opposite, for many years he's been asking the government to do more to fight seasonal flu. Now, the irony is that he finds himself in the camp of people urging the government to calm down a bit...

As for my evidence regarding morgues:

One (French) article from 2017: http://www.leparisien.fr/archives/une-grippe-meurtriere-13-0...

"FACT OF THE DAY. The number of deaths largely exceeds the seasonal average. Like emergency rooms, funeral services are overflowing"

This happens every other winter here, and it's generally worse in Italy due to their older population. It's bad, we need to manage those epidemics, but not start shooting a catastrophe movie every time that happens.

[cycomanic]

I am well aware that NYC is not the centre of the world. I'm European myself, so much for your assumptions.

The reason why I used NYC was because we have reasonably good data from the recent antibody tests which found about 20% population infection. Based on those numbers, the population of NYC and the dead we end up with an IFR of 0.8%-1.5% depending if we use confirmed deaths, suspected deaths or excess deaths (note the actual value would be higher because of the lag between infection and death).

Now for some non US numbers just have a look at the Euromono data https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ You can see the excess death spike which is considerably (for some countries by a lot) larger than the flu epidemic from 2017. So in most countries in Europe it has been significantly more deadly than the flu.

And considering your comment on overflowing hospital, tell me when was the last time they were flying many flu patients per day from Paris hospitals to relief hospitals by helicopter. I know people living close to one and they had almost constant flight noise.

Didier Raoult definitely warrants some background reading

[SomeoneFromCA]

Cannot say much about Paris, but there was not a year, when NYC hospitals had to use refrigerator trailers to store the dead (from flu, for example), and just the death toll in 2 months reached yearly flu death rate in the whole US, from previous years.