[ashtonkem]

Update: updated the stat to 0.25%, based on the official fatality count of 21,045 and a population of 8.4mil.

In 2018, NYC’s premature death rate was 189 per 100,000, or 0.189% of the population. In a single quarter COVID-19 has already surpassed all causes of premature death combined. And that’s before the epidemic is done, and before we’ve had a chance to re-test earlier deaths to adjust the numbers properly.

You’re not wrong that some people will die from otherwise treatable heart attacks, and that’s tragic. But to assert that more will die from staying home than not requires some pretty extraordinary evidence.

[joshuamorton]

This is a terrible take.

Assuming you have a heart attack, your chance of dying is 20%. Higher if you don't get treatment.

That's as high or higher than your chance of dying from covid-19 assuming you're in the highest risk group.

A conservative estimate of likelihood to catch covid if you go to a hospital at this point is 5%. In reality it's probably lower.

These end up mostly cancelling out, so if you the I the chance you're suffering from a heart attack is higher than the chance of catching covid you should go to the hospital. (And this is me still fudging the numbers to make covid look comparatively more dangerous than it really is).

People will needlessly sir if we collectively overstate tht dangers of covid. That's without a doubt true. People will also die if we understate them and don't take reasonable precautions.

[SomeoneFromCA]

> A conservative estimate of likelihood to catch covid if you go to a hospital at this point is 5%.

Really? Where is this number form?

[joshuamorton]

The fact that hospitals aren't pouring new Covid patients out of their ears. Major hospitals are handling lots of cases, and have many more than one hundred employees. They're not hotbeds of transmission, from what I've seen.

You're certainly at more risk in a hospital than at home, but it's not that crazy. Since it seems like you're in the bay area, consider that for the chance to even be 5%, something like most new Covid cases in the bay would need to come from hospital employees or patients. I don't think that's happening.

[SomeoneFromCA]

Haha, no, I am from the Central Asia. All you you just said are handwavey arguments, "I think", "I believe". I think for example, that chances of catching Covid in hospitals in US, at the peak of the epidemic were way above 20%. How is this an argument?

[joshuamorton]

Data backed arguments and your imaginings aren't the same.

[hanche]

What is the definition of premature death?