[copenja]

It's fair to say that NYC was stretched to the limit, and certainly stretched farther than anyone would want, but it is hard to make a claim that hospitals were overwhelmed anywhere like predicted. New York hospitalizations peaked at 18,825[0], while Cuomo predicted they would need 30,000 additional ventilators. The expanded bed capacity in New York reached 90,000 at Cuomo's command[0]. There is no known case of an american not receiving a ventilator if needed [1][2].

And, remember disease models did not just predict unmitigated spread. They absolutely incorporated percentages of social distancing into their models. The original imperial college study predicted that a high income county with around 50% social contact reduction would still exceed hospital capacity by 700%.

Cuomo's New York model that predicted 30,000 additional ventilators absolutely incorporated lockdown measures, if they didn't they have some serious explaining to do.

Of course I still agree a lockdown was needed, and agree the lockdown did about as well as it could. But is there any reason to not revisit data and determine if we could do better?

[0] https://www.newsweek.com/new-york-coronavirus-hospitalizatio... [1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/04/13/coronavirus-p... [2] https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/14/dfc_ceo_t...